 |
Do State-Level Ballot Measures Affect Presidential Elections? Gay Marriage and the 2004 Election
| |
| | Unformatted Document Text:
Do State-Level Ballot Measures Affect Presidential Elections?
Gay Marriage and the 2004 Election
Todd Donovan, Western Washington University
Caroline Tolbert, Kent State University
Daniel Smith, University of Florida
Abstract
This study draws from agenda-setting and voter mobilization theories to develop hypotheses about how state-level ballot measures affected vote choice in the 2004 presidential election. National opinion data are used to test if concerns about gay marriage had greater salience for voters in states where amendments banning gay marriage were on the ballot, and to test the impact of gay marriage (concerns about the issue interacted with the presence of state referenda) on presidential vote choice. State level opinion data are used to test how support for the gay marriage ban interacted with the mobilization effects of ballot measure campaigns to increase support for Bush in key swing states. We find that the gay marriage ballot measures affected the 2004 issue agenda and had both direct and conditional effects on Bush support. Gay marriage was more likely to be cited as an issue used to evaluate candidates by residents of states with marriage ban propositions, and respondents concerned about gay marriage and residing in state with the issue on the ballot were 20 percent more likely to vote for Bush, all else equal. The effect of the gay marriage bans were large and substantively significant compared to other issue concerns in the presidential election, swamping the effect of the economy and rivaling that of the Iraq war. We also find that the ballot measures appear to have mobilized turnout of voters supporting the gay marriage ban in Ohio and Arkansas, and that voters motivated to turnout by ballot measures in these states were significantly more likely to vote for Bush. The research is among the first to show that state ballot propositions can affect national candidate elections.
|
| | Authors: Donovan, Todd., Tolbert, Caroline. and Smith, Daniel. |
|
| |
|
|
Do State-Level Ballot Measures Affect Presidential Elections?
Gay Marriage and the 2004 Election
Todd Donovan, Western Washington University
Caroline Tolbert, Kent State University
Daniel Smith, University of Florida
Abstract
This study draws from agenda-setting and voter mobilization theories to develop
hypotheses about how state-level ballot measures affected vote choice in the 2004
presidential election. National opinion data are used to test if concerns about gay
marriage had greater salience for voters in states where amendments banning gay
marriage were on the ballot, and to test the impact of gay marriage (concerns about the
issue interacted with the presence of state referenda) on presidential vote choice. State
level opinion data are used to test how support for the gay marriage ban interacted with
the mobilization effects of ballot measure campaigns to increase support for Bush in key
swing states. We find that the gay marriage ballot measures affected the 2004 issue
agenda and had both direct and conditional effects on Bush support. Gay marriage was
more likely to be cited as an issue used to evaluate candidates by residents of states with
marriage ban propositions, and respondents concerned about gay marriage and residing in
state with the issue on the ballot were 20 percent more likely to vote for Bush, all else
equal. The effect of the gay marriage bans were large and substantively significant
compared to other issue concerns in the presidential election, swamping the effect of the
economy and rivaling that of the Iraq war. We also find that the ballot measures appear to
have mobilized turnout of voters supporting the gay marriage ban in Ohio and Arkansas,
and that voters motivated to turnout by ballot measures in these states were significantly
more likely to vote for Bush. The research is among the first to show that state ballot
propositions can affect national candidate elections.
|
|
 Convention | | Submission, Review, and Scheduling! All Academic Convention can help with all of your abstract management needs and many more. Contact us today for a quote! | | Submission - Custom fields, multiple submission types, tracks, audio visual, multiple upload formats, automatic conversion to pdf. | | Review - Peer Review, Bulk reviewer assignment, bulk emails, ranking, z-score statistics, and multiple worksheets! | | Reports - Many standard and custom reports generated while you wait. Print programs with participant indexes, event grids, and more! | | Scheduling - Flexible and convenient grid scheduling within rooms and buildings. Conflict checking and advanced filtering. | | Communication - Bulk email tools to help your administrators send reminders and responses. Use form letters, a message center, and much more! | | Management - Search tools, duplicate people management, editing tools, submission transfers, many tools to manage a variety of conference management headaches! | | Click here for more information. |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Page 1 of 46 
