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Is War Rational? The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War
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Dan Lindley
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“Is War Rational?
The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”
Prepared for presentation at the American Political Science Association Conference,
Philadelphia, PA
Panel 19-10: Threat Perceptions in International Security Studies
Saturday, 10:00 am
“By every rational standard, North Korea should still be deterred. In practice, however, few wars
are the result of rational calculations, managed crises, and highly intellectual escalation ladders.”
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“War seems to many to be an irrational act of passion....Yet for all the emotion of the battlefield,
the premeditation of war is a rational process consisting of careful and deliberate calculations.”
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Who is right?
ABSTRACT
This study aims to help answer the question: Is war a rational, deliberate, Clausewitzian pursuit of states and
groups, or is war more often caused by miscalculation and misperception? Assumptions about the extent of rationality underlie policy debates on subjects ranging from deterrence and missile defense to peacekeeping. The rationality
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1
Dan Lindley
1
“Is War Rational?
The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”
Prepared for presentation at the American Political Science Association Conference,
Philadelphia, PA
Panel 19-10: Threat Perceptions in International Security Studies
Saturday, 10:00 am
“By every rational standard, North Korea should still be deterred. In practice, however, few wars
are the result of rational calculations, managed crises, and highly intellectual escalation ladders.”
2
“War seems to many to be an irrational act of passion....Yet for all the emotion of the battlefield,
the premeditation of war is a rational process consisting of careful and deliberate calculations.”
3
Who is right?
ABSTRACT
This study aims to help answer the question: Is war a rational, deliberate, Clausewitzian pursuit of states and
groups, or is war more often caused by miscalculation and misperception? Assumptions about the extent of rationality
underlie policy debates on subjects ranging from deterrence and missile defense to peacekeeping. The rationality
“
”
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