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The Puzzle of Voter Turnout in Elections to the European Parliament
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Abstract
Voter turnout in elections to the European Parliament has continuously declined since the
first direct election in 1979, and although it varies immensely among member states, the average EP-turnout has constantly been more than 20 percentage points lower than the average turnout in corresponding prior national parliamentary elections. This project investigates what factors are associated with voter turnout in elections to the European Parliament among EU member states.The methodology utilized is standard multivariate OLS regression analysis, using a member-state level cross-sectional time-series data-set covering the six election years 1979, 1984, 1989, 1994, 1999, and 2004, and including data on all member states at the time of each election, except the ten new member states in the 2004 election. Addressing one of the most visible problems of democratic legitimacy in the EU, I find a positive relationship between the degree of the proportionality in the allocation of seats and votes among EU member states and turnout in EP-elections. Furthermore, I find a positive relationship between turnout and the abundant positive publicity and media coverage in member states holding the EU-presidency before the election. Finally, I find a positive relationship between turnout in EP-elections and a positive EU-attitude among citizens.
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Abstract
Voter turnout in elections to the European Parliament has continuously declined since the
first direct election in 1979, and although it varies immensely among member states, the average
EP-turnout has constantly been more than 20 percentage points lower than the average turnout in
corresponding prior national parliamentary elections. This project investigates what factors are
associated with voter turnout in elections to the European Parliament among EU member states.
The methodology utilized is standard multivariate OLS regression analysis, using a member-state
level cross-sectional time-series data-set covering the six election years 1979, 1984, 1989, 1994,
1999, and 2004, and including data on all member states at the time of each election, except the
ten new member states in the 2004 election. Addressing one of the most visible problems of
democratic legitimacy in the EU, I find a positive relationship between the degree of the
proportionality in the allocation of seats and votes among EU member states and turnout in EP-
elections. Furthermore, I find a positive relationship between turnout and the abundant positive
publicity and media coverage in member states holding the EU-presidency before the election.
Finally, I find a positive relationship between turnout in EP-elections and a positive EU-attitude
among citizens.
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