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Is War Rational? The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War
Unformatted Document Text:  1 Dan Lindley 1 “Is War Rational? The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War” Prepared for presentation at the International Studies Association Conference, Montreal, Canada Panel WA13: War: New Theoretical Insights Wednesday 8:30 - 10:15 AM “By every rational standard, North Korea should still be deterred. In practice, however, few wars are the result of rational calculations, managed crises, and highly intellectual escalation ladders.” 2 “War seems to many to be an irrational act of passion....Yet for all the emotion of the battlefield, the premeditation of war is a rational process consisting of careful and deliberate calculations.” 3 Who is right? ABSTRACT This study aims to help answer the question: Is war a rational, deliberate, Clausewitzian pursuit of states and groups, or is war more often caused by miscalculation and misperception? Assumptions about the extent of rationality underlie policy debates on subjects ranging from deterrence and missile defense to peacekeeping. The rationality assumption also creates a large but mostly implicit scholarly debate about the causes of war. Many realists and rational choice analysts fall into the Clausewitzian camp, while political psychologists and students of bureaucratic and organizational politics fall into the miscalculation and misperception camp. Debates about the rationality of war remain implicit for methodological, substantive, ideological, and ‘ivory tower’ reasons. Rational choice, large-N statistical, and case study scholars often ignore or are outright hostile to each other. Scholars argue for their position more than they weigh and test arguments and counterarguments from other ideological and methodological camps. Thus, despite the manifest scholarly and public policy importance of the “Is War Rational” question, few studies weigh and test rationality versus miscalculation and misperception as causes of war. Using a variety of methods, this study has begun to conduct these tests, and join these debates. 1 Contact information: Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, 448 Decio Hall, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556. Phone: 574-631-3226; Fax: 574-631-8209; Email: ## email not listed ## ; Webpage: http://www.nd.edu/~dlindley/ . NOTE: This paper reports on a project in its very early stages. Comments welcome. Paul Vasquez, Garrick Merlo, Katherine Jeter, James Thompson, Jennifer Wiemer, and Adam Shanko all contributed research to this analysis. I am particularly grateful to Lauren Kimaid and Ryan Schildkraut for their work on the quantitative analyses reported here. The University of Notre Dame Laboratory for Social Research and the Office of Faculty Research also support this project. All data available on request. 2 “Is There a Crisis in US and North Korean Relations? Yes, There Are Two!” Anthony H. Cordesman at << http://csis.org/features/cord_nkorea.pdf >> CSIS: 12/30/02 3 Bueno de Mesquita, 1981, p. 19.

Authors: Lindley, Daniel.
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1
Dan Lindley
1
“Is War Rational?
The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”
Prepared for presentation at the International Studies Association Conference,
Montreal, Canada
Panel WA13: War: New Theoretical Insights
Wednesday 8:30 - 10:15 AM
“By every rational standard, North Korea should still be deterred. In practice, however, few wars
are the result of rational calculations, managed crises, and highly intellectual escalation
ladders.”
2
“War seems to many to be an irrational act of passion....Yet for all the emotion of the battlefield,
the premeditation of war is a rational process consisting of careful and deliberate calculations.”
3
Who is right?
ABSTRACT
This study aims to help answer the question: Is war a rational, deliberate, Clausewitzian pursuit of states and
groups, or is war more often caused by miscalculation and misperception? Assumptions about the extent of rationality
underlie policy debates on subjects ranging from deterrence and missile defense to peacekeeping. The rationality
assumption also creates a large but mostly implicit scholarly debate about the causes of war. Many realists and rational
choice analysts fall into the Clausewitzian camp, while political psychologists and students of bureaucratic and
organizational politics fall into the miscalculation and misperception camp.
Debates about the rationality of war remain implicit for methodological, substantive, ideological, and ‘ivory
tower’ reasons. Rational choice, large-N statistical, and case study scholars often ignore or are outright hostile to each
other. Scholars argue for their position more than they weigh and test arguments and counterarguments from other
ideological and methodological camps.
Thus, despite the manifest scholarly and public policy importance of the “Is War Rational” question, few studies
weigh and test rationality versus miscalculation and misperception as causes of war. Using a variety of methods, this
study has begun to conduct these tests, and join these debates.
1
Contact information: Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, 448 Decio Hall, University of
Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556. Phone: 574-631-3226; Fax: 574-631-8209; Email:
## email not listed ##
; Webpage:
http://www.nd.edu/~dlindley/
. NOTE: This paper reports on a project in its very early stages. Comments welcome.
Paul Vasquez, Garrick Merlo, Katherine Jeter, James Thompson, Jennifer Wiemer, and Adam Shanko all contributed
research to this analysis. I am particularly grateful to Lauren Kimaid and Ryan Schildkraut for their work on the
quantitative analyses reported here. The University of Notre Dame Laboratory for Social Research and the Office of
Faculty Research also support this project. All data available on request.
2
“Is There a Crisis in US and North Korean Relations? Yes, There Are Two!”
Anthony H. Cordesman at <<
http://csis.org/features/cord_nkorea.pdf
>> CSIS: 12/30/02
3
Bueno de Mesquita, 1981, p. 19.


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