Christopher Newman Midwest Political Science Association 2004
Elgin Community College Dark Tobacco Patch War—Revolution Analysis
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supported…It would be unthinkable for a social bandit to snatch the
peasants’ (though not the lord’s) harvest in his own territory…”
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Goldstone also contrasts his “Fourth Generation” of theory with “Third
Generation” structural theories which assess vulnerability to revolution in terms of
competitiveness with other states resulting from the organization and form of a state.
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Under this analysis, the vast expansion of the economic and military power of the United
States during the last half of the Nineteenth Century was an increase in competitiveness
with respect to other states. The structural approach would appear to predict a lessening
of revolutionary tendencies during the Industrial Revolution.
The question remains why did the social banditry of the Night Rider subside,
despite advocacy for broader scope and continued action by Dr. David Amoss?
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Was
achievement of that the Association’s economic goals of increasing tobacco prices to an
acceptable level enough to cause the revolutionary impulse to subside? If so, a computer
model of the satisfaction of Gurr’s J-curve hypothesis might support the theory by virtue
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Eric Hobsbawm, Bandits (2000 ed.) (London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 2000) 20.
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“Structural theories argue that states vary in structure and are thus vulnerable to
different kinds of revolution. They further contend that revolutions begin from some
combination of state weakness, conflicts between states and elites, and popular
uprisings…Therefore structural theorists ask this question: what kinds of state
organizations are apt to experience fiscal or military crises in competition with other
states?” Comparative and Historical Study 6-7.
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“There were numerous considerations, no doubt, bearing down upon the minds of the
Association and Night Rider leaders which compelled them to keep up the pressure.
First. Their successes had not come easily. A very complex and intricate organization
had been put into place. Inactivity would allow it to deteriorate, if not completely fall
apart. Their masterful efforts must not be thrown away, they most surely agreed, until the
war and not just the battle had been won…
Amoss and Ewing saw the situation in much the same way except for more
sophisticated reasons. The Trust was not to be bickered with. Its power and resiliency had
been all too overwhelming in the past to believe that it was beaten. They were like kids
on top of the neighborhood bully, afraid to either let go or let up, apprehensive that a
recovered villain might render more destruction than ever. So, to flail away was the only
safe course, at least until the Feds had completed their work and Mr. Duke and Company
were brought to their knees.” On Bended Knees 119-20.
Convention