Christopher Newman Midwest Political Science Association 2004
Elgin Community College Dark Tobacco Patch War—Revolution Analysis
21
hypothesis of control of coercive means as necessary to a successful revolution
92
is tested
by running the overall model (with no changes in TABLE ONE and changes in
CHANCE-RECOVERY only in TABLE TWO to isolate the impact of changes in price
per pound) without Night Rider participation by leaving DURATION set at the 26 week
period. In TABLE THREE, DURATION increases to 52 weeks in 1907 to reflect the
activities of the original 5,000 Night Riders in late 1906 and 1907; increase to 78 weeks
in 1908 to reflect the doubling to 10,000 Night Riders in that year and is set at maximum
for 1909 to reflect the increase to 50,000 active Night Riders out of a population of
700,000 in the Dark Patch. The increase in DURATION in any given year reflects the
increased tendency of Association members and other Dark Patch inhabitants to conform
their behavior to the Association policies, ultimately resulting in near-total conformity of
behavior after September, 1909.
TABLE THREE
YEAR Price (lb)
CHANCE-
RECOVERY Duration
%
Rebels %
Loyal
1904 4
cents
50%
XXXXXXXX
3.30% 0%
1905 11 cents
75%
26 weeks
68.10%
27.20%
1906 11 cents
75%
26 weeks
67.10%
26.70%
1907
8.8
cents 68%
52
weeks
52.30%
36.60%
1908
8.5
cents 65%
78
weeks
94.30%
4.80%
1909 12
cents
80%
max
weeks
100% rebels
(Sept.)
92
From Mobilization to Revolution 216.
Convention