Christopher Newman Midwest Political Science Association 2004
Elgin Community College Dark Tobacco Patch War—Revolution Analysis
22
The requirement for the sharp variation in prices—the J-curve—as a precondition of
the Association and Night Rider movements can shown by allowing the price to remain at
the 1890s level of 12 cents per pound. This would lower INFECTIOUSNESS—the
arbitrary figure of 2% is used in the model to reflect an endemic base of discontent
unrelated to economic deprivation—and keep CHANCE-RECOVERY at 80%
throughout, using the same methodology for determination of its value. Under these
conditions there is minimal conflict in the first two years under investigation (1905 and
1906) and then the revolution ends completely, with 0% levels of both rebels and
loyalists.
TABLE FOUR
Year
% Rebel
% Loyal
1905 0.70% 0.50%
1906 0.30% 0.80%
1907 0%
0%
1908 0%
0%
1909 0%
0%
Thus, using the NetLogo model Rebel—1 provides support for Goldstone’s multiple
causation hypothesis in his Fourth Generation of revolutionary theory. Both Gurr’s J-
curve and Tilly’s control of means of coercion seem to be required for the Dark Patch
War to follow the sequence that actually occurred.
In contrast to the combination of many individual decisions represented by Rebel—
1, Spreadsheet FCMs show the macro-level interactions of forces analogous to the
Structural Theories. Kosko's "Fuzzy Cognitive Maps” is a modeling technique that can
represent accommodation of coarse-grained (uncertain) CAS schemata to the real
Convention