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Identities of Competitive States in U.S. Presidential Elections: Electoral College Bias or Candidate-Centered Politics?
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Identities of Competitive States in U.S. Presidential Elections:
Electoral College Bias or Candidate-Centered Politics?
By
Bonnie J. Johnson
1541 Lilac Lane
Lawrence, KS
Department of Political Science
University of Kansas
## email not listed ##
When discussing the biases of the Electoral College, researchers conclude that competitive states seem to occur randomly without any further study or explanation. This study examines the consistency with which the same states have been competitive from one presidential election to the next. Competitive states are states where candidates win by five percent or less of the state’s popular vote. Competitive and non-competitive states were identified for presidential elections from 1824 to 2000. A statistical analysis illustrates that the identities of competitive states have become more unpredictable over time. In terms of representation, the fact that competitive states are not consistent means different states are in the presidential spotlight at different times. As opposed to any biases associated with the Electoral College, the changes in consistency seem to coincide with the rise of candidate-centered politics and the decreasing strength of parties. Prepared for delivery at the Midwest Political Science Association Meetings in Chicago, IL, April 2004.
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| | Authors: Johnson, Bonnie. |
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Identities of Competitive States in U.S. Presidential Elections:
Electoral College Bias or Candidate-Centered Politics?
By
Bonnie J. Johnson
1541 Lilac Lane
Lawrence, KS
Department of Political Science
University of Kansas
## email not listed ##
When discussing the biases of the Electoral College, researchers conclude that competitive states
seem to occur randomly without any further study or explanation. This study examines the
consistency with which the same states have been competitive from one presidential election to
the next. Competitive states are states where candidates win by five percent or less of the state’s
popular vote. Competitive and non-competitive states were identified for presidential elections
from 1824 to 2000. A statistical analysis illustrates that the identities of competitive states have
become more unpredictable over time. In terms of representation, the fact that competitive states
are not consistent means different states are in the presidential spotlight at different times. As
opposed to any biases associated with the Electoral College, the changes in consistency seem to
coincide with the rise of candidate-centered politics and the decreasing strength of parties.
Prepared for delivery at the Midwest Political Science Association Meetings in Chicago, IL,
April 2004.
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