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The Effect of Concurrent Congressional and Presidential Elections: District Level Relative Vote and Presidential Support in Congress
| | Unformatted Document Text:
T
HE
E
FFECT OF
C
ONCURRENT
C
ONGRESSIONAL AND
P
RESIDENTIAL
E
LECTIONS
:
D
ISTRICT
L
EVEL
R
ELATIVE
V
OTE AND
P
RESIDENTIAL
S
UPPORT IN
C
ONGRESS
Christopher B. Mann
Department of Political Science
Yale University
Version: April 2004
Work in Progress
Please do not cite without consulting the author
A
BSTRACT
Recent analyses of what contributes to Congressional support for the U.S. President’s legislative positions have identified three major factors: co-partisanship with the President, ideological affinity, and public approval of the President. I propose adding a new factor: the relative district level electoral performance of the President and member of Congress – i.e. the difference between the 2 party vote shares received by the President and the member of Congress in each district. I analyze panel data with fixed effects for each individual to serve in the House of Representatives from 1952-1998 to estimate the relationship between relative vote and support for the President’s legislative positions. I find some empirical evidence that relative electoral performance has an effect on Congressional support for the President’s legislative positions. I confirm previous findings that ideology, co-partisanship and public approval have a strong relationship to Congressional support for the President.
Paper prepared for the Annual Meeting of Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, April 2004. I would like to express my thanks to Jim Snyder, Steve Ansolabehere, Charles Stewart, George Edwards, and Gary King for generously making data available. I would like to thank Stephen Borelli, Matthew Glassman, Stephen Kosack, David Mayhew, Elizabeth Nathan, Kenneth Scheve, and Stephen Skowronek for advice which improved this paper immensely. All remaining flaws are my responsibility.
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T
HE
E
FFECT OF
C
ONCURRENT
C
ONGRESSIONAL AND
P
RESIDENTIAL
E
LECTIONS
:
D
ISTRICT
L
EVEL
R
ELATIVE
V
OTE AND
P
RESIDENTIAL
S
UPPORT IN
C
ONGRESS
Christopher B. Mann
Department of Political Science
Yale University
Version: April 2004
Work in Progress
Please do not cite without consulting the author
A
BSTRACT
Recent analyses of what contributes to Congressional support for the U.S. President’s legislative
positions have identified three major factors: co-partisanship with the President, ideological
affinity, and public approval of the President. I propose adding a new factor: the relative
district level electoral performance of the President and member of Congress – i.e. the
difference between the 2 party vote shares received by the President and the member of
Congress in each district. I analyze panel data with fixed effects for each individual to serve in
the House of Representatives from 1952-1998 to estimate the relationship between relative
vote and support for the President’s legislative positions. I find some empirical evidence that
relative electoral performance has an effect on Congressional support for the President’s
legislative positions. I confirm previous findings that ideology, co-partisanship and public
approval have a strong relationship to Congressional support for the President.
Paper prepared for the Annual Meeting of Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL,
April 2004. I would like to express my thanks to Jim Snyder, Steve Ansolabehere, Charles
Stewart, George Edwards, and Gary King for generously making data available. I would like to
thank Stephen Borelli, Matthew Glassman, Stephen Kosack, David Mayhew, Elizabeth Nathan,
Kenneth Scheve, and Stephen Skowronek for advice which improved this paper immensely. All
remaining flaws are my responsibility.
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