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Different Strokes for Different Folks: Candidate Race and the Electoral Calculus of Black and White Voters
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Different Strokes for Different Folks:
Candidate Race and the Electoral Calculus of Black and White Voters
Taeku Lee, Michael H. Murakami, and Tatishe M. Nteta
Charles and Louise Travers Department of Political Science
University of California at Berkeley
April 2006
In this paper, we present a general framework and typology for predicting the interactive effects of a candidate's party and race on the electoral calculus of voters. Depending on the race and party of the major party candidates in an election, we predict that white and black voters will either vote their party loyalties, voice dissent, or exit from the choice altogether. This framework is first tested in rarest case – the 2004 Illinois Senate election with two candidates of color competing as major party nominees in a majority white district. Here our theory predicts that white voters with preferences over the race of a candidate will opt to "exit." Using precinct-level data from the 2004 election in Cook County, Illinois we find a strong and significant relationship between the proportion of white voters in a precinct and the likelihood of "roll-off" in that precinct. We then test the three remaining cases in our typology: a black Democrat vying against a white Republican in the 2004 Georgia Senate election; a white Democrat vying against a black Republican in the 2004 Indiana Senate election; a white Democrat and a white Republican competing in the 2004 Missouri Senate election. The results across these four cases present some evidence that is consistent with our expectations, but potentially confounding differences across our cases rule out any conclusive support for our general framework.
Paper prepared for presentation at the 2006 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL. The authors thank Jay Myatt, Kelly Bateman, and Tong Tran for their help acquiring data and Matt Baretto, Claudine Gay, Zoltan Hajnal, Jasjeet Sekhon, Rob van Houweling, and Jason Wittenberg for their generous help and incisive comments on the project. The numerous errors and shortcomings that remain in this paper belong solely with its authors. Please do not cite the paper or its findings without prior permission. Please direct all inquiries to:
## email not listed ##
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Different Strokes for Different Folks:
Candidate Race and the Electoral Calculus of Black and White Voters
Taeku Lee, Michael H. Murakami, and Tatishe M. Nteta
Charles and Louise Travers Department of Political Science
University of California at Berkeley
April 2006
In this paper, we present a general framework and typology for predicting the
interactive effects of a candidate's party and race on the electoral calculus of
voters. Depending on the race and party of the major party candidates in an
election, we predict that white and black voters will either vote their party
loyalties, voice dissent, or exit from the choice altogether. This framework is first
tested in rarest case – the 2004 Illinois Senate election with two candidates of
color competing as major party nominees in a majority white district. Here our
theory predicts that white voters with preferences over the race of a candidate will
opt to "exit." Using precinct-level data from the 2004 election in Cook County,
Illinois we find a strong and significant relationship between the proportion of
white voters in a precinct and the likelihood of "roll-off" in that precinct. We then
test the three remaining cases in our typology: a black Democrat vying against a
white Republican in the 2004 Georgia Senate election; a white Democrat vying
against a black Republican in the 2004 Indiana Senate election; a white Democrat
and a white Republican competing in the 2004 Missouri Senate election. The
results across these four cases present some evidence that is consistent with our
expectations, but potentially confounding differences across our cases rule out
any conclusive support for our general framework.
Paper prepared for presentation at the 2006 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science
Association, Chicago, IL. The authors thank Jay Myatt, Kelly Bateman, and Tong Tran for their
help acquiring data and Matt Baretto, Claudine Gay, Zoltan Hajnal, Jasjeet Sekhon, Rob van
Houweling, and Jason Wittenberg for their generous help and incisive comments on the project.
The numerous errors and shortcomings that remain in this paper belong solely with its authors.
Please do not cite the paper or its findings without prior permission. Please direct all inquiries
to:
## email not listed ##
.
|
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