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Polarizing President? Partisan Cleavage Model of Presidential Approval and George W. Bush
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Polarizing President?
The Partisan Cleavage Model of Presidential Approval and
the George W. Bush Presidency (2001-2006)
April 20, 2006
Keiko Ono
## email not listed ##
Department of Political Science
University of Oklahoma
Abstract
What triggers partisan polarization in presidential evaluations? Different
measures of presidential evaluation; such as job approval, feeling thermometer (FT) scores, affective measures and character traits, of President George W. Bush show his assessments are more polarized along the party line than those for virtually any other modern presidents. The opinion divergence between the two groups, Democratic and Republican identifiers, has increased considerably since he took office and particularly in the last few years. The sources of the greater polarization include generally polarized political environment, specific events (the 2000 election controversy, Iraq war), and ideology. A significant part of the decrease in approval can be explained by the greater (perceived) ideological distance between Bush and the voters. The findings suggest the low approval of Bush among Democrats and consequently the general public is in part due to the increasing partisan polarization of the electorate, but Bush’s transformation from “uniter” to “divider” also contributed to the divide.
Incomplete and preliminary.
This paper was prepared for presentation at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 20-23, 2006. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association (2006). I would like to thank the panel participants for their feedback and Professor Alan Abramowitz for making a copy of his forthcoming article available.
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Polarizing President?
The Partisan Cleavage Model of Presidential Approval and
the George W. Bush Presidency (2001-2006)
April 20, 2006
Keiko Ono
Department of Political Science
University of Oklahoma
Abstract
What triggers partisan polarization in presidential evaluations? Different
measures of presidential evaluation; such as job approval, feeling thermometer (FT)
scores, affective measures and character traits, of President George W. Bush show his
assessments are more polarized along the party line than those for virtually any other
modern presidents. The opinion divergence between the two groups, Democratic and
Republican identifiers, has increased considerably since he took office and particularly in
the last few years. The sources of the greater polarization include generally polarized
political environment, specific events (the 2000 election controversy, Iraq war), and
ideology. A significant part of the decrease in approval can be explained by the greater
(perceived) ideological distance between Bush and the voters. The findings suggest the
low approval of Bush among Democrats and consequently the general public is in part
due to the increasing partisan polarization of the electorate, but Bush’s transformation
from “uniter” to “divider” also contributed to the divide.
Incomplete and preliminary.
This paper was prepared for presentation at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political
Science Association, Chicago, April 20-23, 2006. An earlier version of this paper was
presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association (2006). I
would like to thank the panel participants for their feedback and Professor Alan
Abramowitz for making a copy of his forthcoming article available.
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