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Early Warning for the Prevention of Genocide and Mass Atrocities
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Early Warning for the Prevention of Genocide and Mass Atrocities
Paper prepared for 48
th
Annual ISA Convention, Chicago
Panel on “New Strategies for Effective Conflict Early Warning”
March 1, 2007
Lawrence Woocher
Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention
United States Institute of Peace
## email not listed ##
Abstract
Early warning is universally accepted to be one of the pillars of effective prevention of genocide. The obligation to prevent genocide, therefore, implies the need for an effective early warning capacity. Most analysts have judged current risk assessment and early warning practices to be adequate, if imperfect, pointing to other factors in explaining failures to prevent mass atrocities. After sketching a basic conceptual framework for early warning, this paper discusses significant limitations of a leading genocide risk assessment model. This analysis, and the identification of additional challenges, suggests that the field may be further than is commonly acknowledged from developing effective early warning methods and mechanisms for the prevention of genocide and mass atrocities.
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| | Authors: Woocher, Lawrence. |
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|
Early Warning for the Prevention of Genocide and Mass Atrocities
Paper prepared for 48
th
Annual ISA Convention, Chicago
Panel on “New Strategies for Effective Conflict Early Warning”
March 1, 2007
Lawrence Woocher
Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention
United States Institute of Peace
## email not listed ##
Abstract
Early warning is universally accepted to be one of the pillars of effective prevention of genocide.
The obligation to prevent genocide, therefore, implies the need for an effective early warning
capacity. Most analysts have judged current risk assessment and early warning practices to be
adequate, if imperfect, pointing to other factors in explaining failures to prevent mass atrocities.
After sketching a basic conceptual framework for early warning, this paper discusses significant
limitations of a leading genocide risk assessment model. This analysis, and the identification of
additional challenges, suggests that the field may be further than is commonly acknowledged
from developing effective early warning methods and mechanisms for the prevention of
genocide and mass atrocities.
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