(Page 1 of 13) - Reacting to Terrorism: Probabilities, Consequences, and the Persistence of Fear authored by Mueller, John.

REACTING TO TERRORISM:

PROBABILITIES, CONSEQUENCES, AND THE PERSISTENCE OF FEAR

John Mueller

Department of Political Science

Ohio State University

February 6, 2007

Mershon Center
1501 Neil Avenue
Columbus, OH 43201-2602 USA
614-247-6007
614-292-2407 (fax)
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http://psweb.sbs.ohio-state.edu/faculty/jmueller

Prepared for presentation at the

National Convention of the

International Studies Association

Chicago,

Illinois

February 26-March 4, 2007

ABSTRACT For all the attention it evokes, international terrorism, in reasonable

context, actually causes rather little damage, and the likelihood that any individual will
become a victim in most places is microscopic. But few people, it seems, are aware of
either fact. This paper examines 1) the process by which terrorism is measured,
demonstrating its limited direct consequences; 2) the fears and the behavioral
consequences it creates and nourishes, including economically evasive behavior, negative
health effects, and apparent support for policies that often prove expensive and of
dubious quality; and 3) the potential longterm persistence of these fears, suggesting that
the internalized fears about terrorism may be around for decades.

For all the attention it evokes, international terrorism, in reasonable context, actually causes rather

little, damage, and the likelihood that any individual will become a victim in most places is microscopic.
But few people, it seems, are aware of either fact. This paper examines the process by which terrorism is
measured, the fears and behavioral consequence it creates and nourishes, and the potential longterm
persistence of these fears.

Calculating

probabilities

For several decades, the United States State Department collected data on international terrorism,

defining the act as premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated by subnational groups or
clandestine agents against noncombatant targets (civilians and military personnel who at the time of the
incident are unarmed or not on duty) that involve citizens or the territory of more than one country. The
data so accumulated for the period from 1975 to 2003 are arrayed in Figure 1.

Those adept at hyperbole like to proclaim that we live in "the age of terror." However, as can be

seen in the figure, the number of people worldwide who die as a result of international terrorism by this
definition is generally a few hundred a year. In fact, until 2001 far fewer Americans were killed in any
grouping of years by all forms of international terrorism than were killed by lightning. Moreover, except
for 2001, virtually none of these terrorist deaths occurred within the United States itself. Indeed, outside