1
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is more integrated into the global political
and economic system than ever before. On balance, China might best be described as a
status quo power—a responsible state that does not seek to destabilize the norms of the
international system. However, Beijing’s relations with its neighbors are not without their
complexities and problems. Perhaps most worrisome is the PRC’s rocky relationship
with the Republic of China on Taiwan (ROC or Taiwan).
This paper examines the changing nature of China’s policy toward Taiwan. Many
of the sharpest debates in Taiwan, the US and elsewhere have been over whether recent
modifications in policy represent a genuine overhaul in Beijing’s approach to Taipei. To
simplify, some argue that meaningful change already is happening and that such
developments warrant careful study and attention.
1
But skeptics conclude that it isn’t
happening. As one Taiwanese lawmaker complained, the new strategy is designed to
“undermine the power of the [Taiwan] government…it’s a poison coated with sugar.”
2
After analyzing various indicators, this study shows how theories and/or conceptual
frameworks often employed in the fields of international relations and comparative
politics might help analysts unravel some parts of the complicated puzzle that constitutes
China’s policy toward Taiwan. In conclusion, however, the author suggests that it is
probable that decision-makers in Taipei will require more facts—not theories—before
they agree that there is a genuine “paradigm shift” in Beijing’s approach to the thorny
Taiwan dispute.
II. EVOLUTION OF THE PRC’S POLICY TOWARD TAIWAN
Mao Zedong, Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), officially
proclaimed the founding of the PRC on October 1, 1949. Since that time, Beijing’s
relations with Taipei have passed through several stages. The discussion below briefly
examines each of these.
Phase One: Armed Liberation
During the 1930s and early 1940s, CCP leaders referred to Taiwan as being
separate of China. Even Mao Zedong acknowledged that the island did not belong to
China.
3
He placed Taiwan “in the same category as Korea and other ‘friendly territories’
on China’s periphery…[and] apparently perceived that Taiwan was not part of China
historically or legally.”
4
At President Chiang Kai-shek’s insistence, a series of wartime agreements
hammered out by the Allied powers (the Cairo Declaration, the Teheran Conference and
the Potsdam Proclamation) returned “territories Japan has stolen from the Chinese, such
1
Chang Yun-ping, “China’s Shift Poses New Challenges: Academic,” Taipei Times, July 15, 2006 in
Taiwan Security Research on the world wide web at http://taiwansecurity.org.
2
“Taiwan Says Beijing Offer ‘Poison,” Snubs ‘One China Principle,’” Agence France Presse, April 17,
2006 in Taiwan Security Research on the world wide web at http://taiwansecurity.org.
3
See Edgar Snow, Red Star Over China (New York: Random House, 1938), pp.33-89.
4
See John F. Copper, Taiwan: Nation-State or Province (Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1990),
pp.18-19.
Convention