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The Effects of Cognitive Biases on Early Warning
Lawrence Woocher
Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention
United States Institute of Peace
## email not listed ##
Presented at the International Studies Association Annual Convention
March 29, 2008
Abstract
This paper reviews selected concepts and empirical evidence from psychology and cognitive
science about limitations in the way that individuals process information and make decisions,
and applies these to early warning and response. Cognitive biases can exert influence on early
warning by affecting the warning analyst’s judgments and/or the policymaker’s evaluation of
warnings and decision about a response. Taken together, literature on cognitive biases suggests
that warning analysis will tend to overestimate risks and policymakers will tend to resist calls for
preventive action, preferring to risk a greater loss in the future rather than accept a certain one
now. The paper then discusses possible strategies to minimize and manage the negative effects of
cognitive biases on early warning. These strategies have yet to prove fully their ability to address
fundamental cognitive biases in applied settings. The author concludes that additional research
into the effectiveness of these strategies is important for designing and implementing more
effective early warning systems.
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