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Time for a Change? A Forecast of the 2008 Presidential Election
Unformatted Document Text:  TIME FOR A CHANGE? FORECASTING THE 2008 ELECTION Helmut Norpoth Dept. of Political Science Stony Brook University (631) 632-7640 (631) 632-4116 (fax) helmut.## email not listed ## ABSTRACT The PRIMARY MODEL predicts that in race between the two primary winners (New Hampshire) Democrat Hillary Clinton edges Republican John McCain by a narrow margin: 50.5 to 49.5 percent of the two-party vote. Barack Obama would win by the narrowest of margins over McCain: 50.1 to 49.9 percent. In addition to primary elections, the forecast model relies on a cyclical dynamic detected in presidential elections. The model estimates are based on presidential elections going back as far as 1912, the first year of presidential primaries, with an adjustment applied to partisanship for pre-New Deal elections. The primary performance of the incumbent-party candidate and that of the opposition-party candidate enter as separate predictors. For elections since 1952, the primary-support measure relies solely on the New Hampshire primary. The 2008 forecasts for presidential match-ups were first posted January 15. http://www.pollster.com/blogs/new_hampshires_crystal_ball_in.php A paper prepared for presentation at the 66 th Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, April 3-6, 2008.

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TIME FOR A CHANGE?
FORECASTING THE 2008 ELECTION
Helmut Norpoth
Dept. of Political Science
Stony Brook University
(631) 632-7640
(631) 632-4116 (fax)
ABSTRACT
The PRIMARY MODEL predicts that in race between the two primary winners (New Hampshire)
Democrat Hillary Clinton edges Republican John McCain by a narrow margin: 50.5 to 49.5 percent of the
two-party vote. Barack Obama would win by the narrowest of margins over McCain: 50.1 to 49.9
percent. In addition to primary elections, the forecast model relies on a cyclical dynamic detected in
presidential elections. The model estimates are based on presidential elections going back as far as 1912,
the first year of presidential primaries, with an adjustment applied to partisanship for pre-New Deal
elections. The primary performance of the incumbent-party candidate and that of the opposition-party
candidate enter as separate predictors. For elections since 1952, the primary-support measure relies solely
on the New Hampshire primary. The 2008 forecasts for presidential match-ups were first posted January
15.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/new_hampshires_crystal_ball_in.php
A paper prepared for presentation at the
66
th
Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association,
Chicago, IL, April 3-6, 2008.


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