With the New Hampshire Primary decided, the model is capable of making a final forecast for any match-
up in November between Democratic and Republican candidates (first posted January 15 this year at
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/new_hampshires_crystal_ball_in.php
). In the
race between the two primary winners, Democrat Hillary Clinton would edge Republican John McCain
by a narrow margin: 50.5 to 49.5 percent of the two-party vote. Barack Obama would win by the
narrowest of margins over McCain: 50.1 to 49.9 percent. Needless to say, both of these forecasts are well
within one unit of the forecast standard error.
Candidate Support in Primaries
Ever since presidential primaries were introduced, in 1912, the ultimate nominees have played a key role
in those contests. Only once (1920) did neither party give the presidential nomination to its primary
winner. How primary support for a presidential nominee translates into general election support is best
examined separately for the party with a president in the White House and the out-party. In the party
holding the White House at the time of a presidential election, many of the nominees, of course, are
presidents seeking reelection. Or they are incumbent vice presidents winning their party’s nomination
(e.g., Al Gore in 2000), turning the presidential contest into a “succession election” (Weisberg and Hill
2004). During the period of interest (1912-2004), it was quite rare for the incumbent party to nominate a
presidential candidate lacking any official connection to the outgoing administration (e.g., Democrats in
1952). The experience of 2008 is likely to add to that small set.
Table 1 here
3
Convention