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The Recurrence of Ethnic Conflict: Are Democratic Institutions to Blame? |
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Abstract:
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Since 1990, there has been a dramatic rise in the occurrence of ethnic conflict throughout the world. Many scholars argue democratic institutions play a critical role in the resolution of these conflicts, because these institutions allow power sharing between ethnic groups and ensure each groups voice is heard in a peaceful forum. This has been the argument used to promote democratization in Iraq and Afghanistan, both of which are former hotbeds of ethnic conflict. However, there is little theoretical or empirical evidence showing democratic institutions actually achieving these goals. In actuality, the uncertainty surrounding democratic elections seems to erode the credibility of these groups commitments to peace, which leads to a recurrence of ethnic conflict. Using a Cox Proportional Hazards Model coupled with case studies of Mozambique, Uganda, and Zimbabwe, this paper finds the probability of the recurrence of ethnic conflict is indeed higher in democracies and transitional regimes, which indicate authoritarian regimes are better at stifling the recurrence of ethnic conflict in the short-run. These results call the United States strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as the normative belief that all countries should democratize into question. |
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conflict (175), ethnic (144), recurr (94), regim (69), democrat (62), democraci (57), countri (57), elect (52), group (49), case (44), institut (43), jame (37), variabl (36), p (33), power (33), uncertainti (32), 32 (32), melton (32), one (32), consolid (31), transit (29), |
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conflict resolution, ethnic conflict, democracy, democratization, transitional democracies, recurrence |
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Association:
Name: The Midwest Political Science Association URL: http://www.indiana.edu/~mpsa/
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Melton, James. "The Recurrence of Ethnic Conflict: Are Democratic Institutions to Blame?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois, Apr 20, 2006 <Not Available>. 2008-10-09 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p139798_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Melton, J. D. , 2006-04-20 "The Recurrence of Ethnic Conflict: Are Democratic Institutions to Blame?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the The Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois Online <PDF>. 2008-10-09 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p139798_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Abstract: Since 1990, there has been a dramatic rise in the occurrence of ethnic conflict throughout the world. Many scholars argue democratic institutions play a critical role in the resolution of these conflicts, because these institutions allow power sharing between ethnic groups and ensure each groups voice is heard in a peaceful forum. This has been the argument used to promote democratization in Iraq and Afghanistan, both of which are former hotbeds of ethnic conflict. However, there is little theoretical or empirical evidence showing democratic institutions actually achieving these goals. In actuality, the uncertainty surrounding democratic elections seems to erode the credibility of these groups commitments to peace, which leads to a recurrence of ethnic conflict. Using a Cox Proportional Hazards Model coupled with case studies of Mozambique, Uganda, and Zimbabwe, this paper finds the probability of the recurrence of ethnic conflict is indeed higher in democracies and transitional regimes, which indicate authoritarian regimes are better at stifling the recurrence of ethnic conflict in the short-run. These results call the United States strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as the normative belief that all countries should democratize into question. |
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| Document Type: |
PDF |
| Page count: |
32 |
| Word count: |
7925 |
| Text sample: |
| The Recurrence of Ethnic Conflict: Are Democratic Institutions to Blame? James Melton Department of Political Science University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign melton@uiuc.edu MPSA National Conference April 20 2006 The Recurrence of Ethnic Conflict James Melton - p. 2 of 32 Abstract Since 1990 there has been a dramatic rise in the occurrence of ethnic conflict throughout the world. Many scholars argue democratic institutions play a critical role in the resolution of these conflicts because these institutions allow power sharing between |
| Masipula. 1998. “Managing Ethnic Conflicts in Zimbabwe.” Ethnic Conflicts in Africa. Okwudiba Nnoli ed. Dakar: Codesria. Snyder Jack. 2000. From Voting to Violence: Democratization and Nationalist Conflict. New York: W.W. Norton & Company. Snyder Jack 2004. “Problems of Democratic Transition in Divided Societies.” Unpublished. Walter Barbara. 1997. “The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement.” International Organization. 51.3: 335-364. Weingast Barry R. 1998. “Constructing Trust: The Political and Economic Roots of Ethnic and Regional Conflict.” Institutions and Social Order. Karol |
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