Author's Keywords: Israel, Palestine, event data, data analysis, time series, TABARI	Convention All Academic Convention is the premier solution for your association's abstract management solutions needs. Submission - Custom fields, multiple submission types, tracks, audio visual, multiple upload formats, automatic conversion to pdf. Review - Peer Review, Bulk reviewer assignment, bulk emails, ranking, z-score statistics, and multiple worksheets! Reports - Many standard and custom reports generated while you wait. Print programs with participant indexes, event grids, and more! Scheduling - Flexible and convenient grid scheduling within rooms and buildings. Conflict checking and advanced filtering. Communication - Bulk email tools to help your administrators send reminders and responses. Use form letters, a message center, and much more! Management - Search tools, duplicate people management, editing tools, submission transfers, many tools to manage a variety of conference management headaches! Click here for more information.
Association: Name: American Political Science Association URL: http://www.apsanet.org
Citation: URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p151706_index.html Direct Link: HTML Code:

Schrodt, Philip. and Hudson, Valerie. "A Conditional Probability Analysis of Pattern-Based Models Applied to Event Data in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott, Loews Philadelphia, and the Pennsylvania Convention Center, Philadelphia, PA, Aug 31, 2006 <Not Available>. 2008-12-11 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p151706_index.html>

Schrodt, P. A. and Hudson, V. , 2006-08-31 "A Conditional Probability Analysis of Pattern-Based Models Applied to Event Data in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott, Loews Philadelphia, and the Pennsylvania Convention Center, Philadelphia, PA Online <WEBMAIL/PDF>. 2008-12-11 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p151706_index.html

Publication Type: Proceeding Abstract: Existing formal models of political behavior have followed the lead of the natural sciences and generally focused on methods that use continuous-variable mathematics. Stephen Wolfram has recently produced an extended critique of that approach in the natural sciences, and suggested that a great deal of natural behavior can be accounted for using rules that involve discrete patterns. Over the past three years we have developed software to display the presence of patterns in event data. This paper extends our earlier work, which focused on the presence of specific patterns over time, to look at the stochastic characteristics of these pattern. We are specifically interested in the relationship between patterns as reflected in their conditional probabilities: does the probability of a pattern increase or decrease the probability of other patterns? Using data from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for the period April 1979 to October 2005, and using some of the common patterns that we identified in our earlier research, we find that these conditional relationship do hold, and are almost always positive. As we expected, and consistent with our earlier studies, the strength of the relationships varies over time and these variations are usually strongly correlated with the broader qualitative characteristics of the conflict, for example major conflict phases such as the first and second intifadas and the Oslo negotiation process.

Transition from pre-verbal to verbal communication. Making sense at the transition periods in two different contexts

The Creation of CAMEO (Conflict and Mediation Event Observations): An Event Data Framework for a Post Cold War World

World Society and the Middle East: Regional Conflict and Cooperation Patterns from a Constructivist Perspective