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Not the If but the How of Vote Procedure Changes and their Effect on Voter Turnout: An Elite or Mass Based Causal Process?

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Abstract:

Abstract

Changes in voting procedures have produced inconsistent and mediocre effects in terms of increasing overall turnout rates. Additionally, these changes have performed poorly in terms of altering the demographics of the voting population, leaving many political scientists and policymakers dumbfounded as to how to encourage increased voting participation. We shift the focus of the argument from the individual voter to political elites, and ask how vote procedure changes might affect elite mobilization strategies. Voting changes should not be expected to increase turnout if elites do not find these changes to be strategically advantageous. Using the recent creation of vote centers in the state of Colorado, we combine information from interviews of campaign elites with county-level turnout data in the 2006 general election to investigate the effects of vote centers on turnout. The theoretical story suggests that vote centers will only increase turnout in areas of high competition, where elites use them to gain a strategic advantage. The limited dataset provides some suggestive evidence that this is indeed what is happening. Vote centers do not seem to have much influence on turnout, except in “competitive” counties, where their effects are quite large. We conclude with a discussion of a number of more direct ways in which these hypotheses can be tested.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

vote (188), center (93), turnout (74), counti (73), elect (67), voter (66), chang (57), elit (54), competit (45), use (43), elector (37), state (33), 2006 (30), colorado (29), procedur (29), reform (29), increas (26), denver (24), mobil (24), locat (22), polit (21),

Author's Keywords:

Vote Centers, Elites, Turnout, Competition, mobilization
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Name: Midwest Political Science Association
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http://www.indiana.edu/~mpsa/


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URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p199130_index.html
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MLA Citation:

Gonzalez Juenke, Eric. and Shepherd, JulieMarie. "Not the If but the How of Vote Procedure Changes and their Effect on Voter Turnout: An Elite or Mass Based Causal Process?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hotel, Chicago, IL, Apr 12, 2007 <Not Available>. 2008-12-11 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p199130_index.html>

APA Citation:

Gonzalez Juenke, E. and Shepherd, J. A. , 2007-04-12 "Not the If but the How of Vote Procedure Changes and their Effect on Voter Turnout: An Elite or Mass Based Causal Process?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hotel, Chicago, IL Online <PDF>. 2008-12-11 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p199130_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Abstract

Changes in voting procedures have produced inconsistent and mediocre effects in terms of increasing overall turnout rates. Additionally, these changes have performed poorly in terms of altering the demographics of the voting population, leaving many political scientists and policymakers dumbfounded as to how to encourage increased voting participation. We shift the focus of the argument from the individual voter to political elites, and ask how vote procedure changes might affect elite mobilization strategies. Voting changes should not be expected to increase turnout if elites do not find these changes to be strategically advantageous. Using the recent creation of vote centers in the state of Colorado, we combine information from interviews of campaign elites with county-level turnout data in the 2006 general election to investigate the effects of vote centers on turnout. The theoretical story suggests that vote centers will only increase turnout in areas of high competition, where elites use them to gain a strategic advantage. The limited dataset provides some suggestive evidence that this is indeed what is happening. Vote centers do not seem to have much influence on turnout, except in “competitive” counties, where their effects are quite large. We conclude with a discussion of a number of more direct ways in which these hypotheses can be tested.

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Associated Document Available Midwest Political Science Association
Associated Document Available Political Research Online

Document Type: PDF
Page count: 24
Word count: 7000
Text sample:
Not the If but the How: Vote Procedure Changes and Voter Turnout An Elite or Mass-Based Process? Eric Gonzalez Juenke JulieMarie Shepherd Department of Political Science Department of Political Science University of Colorado at Boulder University of Colorado at Boulder Paper Prepared for the 2007 Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association Chicago IL April 12-15. Eric Gonzalez Juenke is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science. JulieMarie Shepherd is an undergraduate student at the University of
23 Figure 1:Vote Centers and "Competitive" Counties 80% No Vote Centers 75% 2006 %Turnout 70% 65% Vote Centers 60% 55% 50% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 2004 Bush/Kerry Vote Gap 24


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