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Effect of Medical / Forensic Examinations on the Prosecution of Sexual Assault

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Abstract:

This presentation examines how characteristics of medical / forensic examinations of sexual assault victims impact legal resolutions. More specifically, this paper analyzes how exam, suspect, and victim characteristics affect the likelihood that cases will be referred to prosecution. To do so, we explore the utility of a new approach to modeling the decision to refer sexual assault charges for prosecution. In addition to using traditional regression methods, we explore whether an ensemble method (Random Forest) can shed light on the confusion that shrouds the sexual assault case processing literature. Random Forest models are conceptually described. Logistic regression results and Random Forest results are then presented and compared. Ultimately, ensemble methods are not better than traditional parametric models, they are just different. They unpack the relationships between exogenous and endogenous variables in a different way, with a slightly different goal. While logistic regression can easily discern the importance of a predictor, it cannot easily make good predictions (particularly of rare events). Conversely, Random Forest models (and ensemble methods generally) can make excellent predictions, but they often cannot easily discern the importance of each predictor. By capitalizing on the strengths of each method, we more comprehensively examine the decision to refer sexual assault cases for prosecution.
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Association:
Name: AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CRIMINOLOGY
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http://www.asc41.com


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URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p201372_index.html
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MLA Citation:

Snodgrass, G. Matthew., Rosay, Andre. and Henry, Tara. "Effect of Medical / Forensic Examinations on the Prosecution of Sexual Assault" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CRIMINOLOGY, Atlanta Marriott Marquis, Atlanta, Georgia, <Not Available>. 2008-10-08 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p201372_index.html>

APA Citation:

Snodgrass, G. , Rosay, A. B. and Henry, T. B. "Effect of Medical / Forensic Examinations on the Prosecution of Sexual Assault" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CRIMINOLOGY, Atlanta Marriott Marquis, Atlanta, Georgia <Not Available>. 2008-10-08 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p201372_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: This presentation examines how characteristics of medical / forensic examinations of sexual assault victims impact legal resolutions. More specifically, this paper analyzes how exam, suspect, and victim characteristics affect the likelihood that cases will be referred to prosecution. To do so, we explore the utility of a new approach to modeling the decision to refer sexual assault charges for prosecution. In addition to using traditional regression methods, we explore whether an ensemble method (Random Forest) can shed light on the confusion that shrouds the sexual assault case processing literature. Random Forest models are conceptually described. Logistic regression results and Random Forest results are then presented and compared. Ultimately, ensemble methods are not better than traditional parametric models, they are just different. They unpack the relationships between exogenous and endogenous variables in a different way, with a slightly different goal. While logistic regression can easily discern the importance of a predictor, it cannot easily make good predictions (particularly of rare events). Conversely, Random Forest models (and ensemble methods generally) can make excellent predictions, but they often cannot easily discern the importance of each predictor. By capitalizing on the strengths of each method, we more comprehensively examine the decision to refer sexual assault cases for prosecution.

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