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Housing Markets and New York City’s Crime Decline |
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Abstract:
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The contentious debate on the crime decline in American cities has largely overlooked critical effects of land use and housing that have dramatically altered the physical and social landscapes of inner cities. New York City’s high rates of public investment in housing and sharply rising and falling crime rates provides a rich context to identify whether the relationship between housing development and crime is reciprocal or causal, and if causal, in which direction. We examine concurrent changes in housing markets and crime rates in New York City neighborhoods from 1985-2002, a period when crime rates rose sharply to record levels before beginning a sustained decline now well into its second decade. New York City developed its “10 Year Plan” to invest over $5 billion of public funds in housing construction and renovation targeted in the City’s poorest and highest crime neighborhoods. Since it inception in 1985, these investments have been a fraction of the total of public and private investments in those areas. To test the effects of housing development on crime rates, we specify models to identify changes in housing markets based on the effects of housing development on housing sales and sale prices. Next, we use cross-lag specifications to identify reciprocal and recursive housing market effects on crime, using neighborhoods as the unit of analysis. To identify mediating factors, we next specify models that test for population change and changes in housing conditions and stock. We disaggregate these trends within neighborhoods arrayed into four crime trajectories. The results suggest that housing markets in the city’s most violent neighborhoods were changing dynamically even before crime rates began their drop in the early 1990s. Law enforcement is endogenous and in fact spurious with housing changes. The city’s most violent neighborhoods enjoyed the largest sharpest improvements in housing conditions and also the sharpest increase in housing prices. This was true both in neighborhoods that experienced relatively low population turnover but expanding home ownership, and neighborhoods where population change signaled a process of gentrification with high rates of demographic change. The results confirm the important role of housing and land use in animating ecological changes that are implicated in the decline of crime epidemics. |
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Association:
Name: AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CRIMINOLOGY
URL: http://www.asc41.com
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Fagan, Jeffrey. and Davies, Garth. "Housing Markets and New York City’s Crime Decline" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CRIMINOLOGY, Atlanta Marriott Marquis, Atlanta, Georgia, Nov 13, 2007 <Not Available>. 2008-10-08 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p202150_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Fagan, J. and Davies, G. , 2007-11-13 "Housing Markets and New York City’s Crime Decline" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CRIMINOLOGY, Atlanta Marriott Marquis, Atlanta, Georgia <Not Available>. 2008-10-08 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p202150_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: The contentious debate on the crime decline in American cities has largely overlooked critical effects of land use and housing that have dramatically altered the physical and social landscapes of inner cities. New York City’s high rates of public investment in housing and sharply rising and falling crime rates provides a rich context to identify whether the relationship between housing development and crime is reciprocal or causal, and if causal, in which direction. We examine concurrent changes in housing markets and crime rates in New York City neighborhoods from 1985-2002, a period when crime rates rose sharply to record levels before beginning a sustained decline now well into its second decade. New York City developed its “10 Year Plan” to invest over $5 billion of public funds in housing construction and renovation targeted in the City’s poorest and highest crime neighborhoods. Since it inception in 1985, these investments have been a fraction of the total of public and private investments in those areas. To test the effects of housing development on crime rates, we specify models to identify changes in housing markets based on the effects of housing development on housing sales and sale prices. Next, we use cross-lag specifications to identify reciprocal and recursive housing market effects on crime, using neighborhoods as the unit of analysis. To identify mediating factors, we next specify models that test for population change and changes in housing conditions and stock. We disaggregate these trends within neighborhoods arrayed into four crime trajectories. The results suggest that housing markets in the city’s most violent neighborhoods were changing dynamically even before crime rates began their drop in the early 1990s. Law enforcement is endogenous and in fact spurious with housing changes. The city’s most violent neighborhoods enjoyed the largest sharpest improvements in housing conditions and also the sharpest increase in housing prices. This was true both in neighborhoods that experienced relatively low population turnover but expanding home ownership, and neighborhoods where population change signaled a process of gentrification with high rates of demographic change. The results confirm the important role of housing and land use in animating ecological changes that are implicated in the decline of crime epidemics. |
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