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Making Peace or Makes no Difference: the Effect of Third Party Measures in Intrastate Low-level Armed Conflicts, 1993-2004

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Abstract:

Since the end of the Cold War, there has been a remarkable decrease in the amount of and the severity of armed conflicts. Several factors are likely to have contributed to this development, such as for example global economic development and the end of superpower rivalry. In addition, many analysts have singled out increased activity of the international community as a key factor. Anecdotic evidence has sometimes supported the causal link between third party action and a reduction of violence. When the UN Humanitarian coordinator for Sudan compared the attacks on civilians in Darfur with the Rwandan genocide, this led to a sudden stop of the attacks. However, when the statement was not followed up by any further outside pressures the violence resumed. It could be argued that the effect of third party attempts to influence a conflict situation is dependent on the extent the third party is willing to commit to its measures.This paper will utilize a unique dataset comprising both costly and less costly third party actions with the UCDP dataset MILC (Managing Intrastate Low-level armed Conflicts) as its base. The effect will be measured with regards to several dependent variables, including short-term reductions of fighting and attacks on civilians, but also long-term effects on the conflict development such as the settlement of the dispute. Previous research lack in comparing the effect of costly and less costly third party actions and this paper will hopefully render more focus on this issue that have high importance both for the research and the policy community.
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Name: ISA's 49th ANNUAL CONVENTION, BRIDGING MULTIPLE DIVIDES
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"Making Peace or Makes no Difference: the Effect of Third Party Measures in Intrastate Low-level Armed Conflicts, 1993-2004" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ISA's 49th ANNUAL CONVENTION, BRIDGING MULTIPLE DIVIDES, Hilton San Francisco, SAN FRANCISCO, CA, USA, Mar 26, 2008 <Not Available>. 2008-12-11 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p251136_index.html>

APA Citation:

, 2008-03-26 "Making Peace or Makes no Difference: the Effect of Third Party Measures in Intrastate Low-level Armed Conflicts, 1993-2004" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ISA's 49th ANNUAL CONVENTION, BRIDGING MULTIPLE DIVIDES, Hilton San Francisco, SAN FRANCISCO, CA, USA <Not Available>. 2008-12-11 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p251136_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Since the end of the Cold War, there has been a remarkable decrease in the amount of and the severity of armed conflicts. Several factors are likely to have contributed to this development, such as for example global economic development and the end of superpower rivalry. In addition, many analysts have singled out increased activity of the international community as a key factor. Anecdotic evidence has sometimes supported the causal link between third party action and a reduction of violence. When the UN Humanitarian coordinator for Sudan compared the attacks on civilians in Darfur with the Rwandan genocide, this led to a sudden stop of the attacks. However, when the statement was not followed up by any further outside pressures the violence resumed. It could be argued that the effect of third party attempts to influence a conflict situation is dependent on the extent the third party is willing to commit to its measures.This paper will utilize a unique dataset comprising both costly and less costly third party actions with the UCDP dataset MILC (Managing Intrastate Low-level armed Conflicts) as its base. The effect will be measured with regards to several dependent variables, including short-term reductions of fighting and attacks on civilians, but also long-term effects on the conflict development such as the settlement of the dispute. Previous research lack in comparing the effect of costly and less costly third party actions and this paper will hopefully render more focus on this issue that have high importance both for the research and the policy community.

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Escalation of Low-Level Armed Conflicts and Third Party Conflict Prevention Measures

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