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A New Twist: Negative Campaigning and Normal Vote Deviations in Senate and Gubernatorial Elections

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Abstract:

Media coverage, including advertising, tunes voters in to a political campaign and informs them about candidates and their positions. Positive and negative ads differ, however, in the quality and quantity of information they convey about candidates. While campaign managers advise candidates to "Go negative early, often, and right through election day, if necessary" (Kamber 1997, 46), scholars of political advertising have yet to reach a consensus regarding the eff ects of this advice on voters' attitudes, election outcomes, and the ultimate consequences for a democratic system. At best, research indicates that voters do not like negative ads but that the ads are e ffective to a degree.

This paper extends the analysis of advertising and election outcomes by exploring the eff ects of timing, tone, and exposure to negative television advertising on short term deviations from state-level normal votes in U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races. This study furthers the current literature in two fashions; fi rst, we examine the influence of attack advertising on actual election outcomes rather than intentions. Second, we theorize that negative advertising does not simply activate or deactivate potential voters but that it also encourages voters to think beyond the traditional categorization of party identi fication. While many justi fications for deviations from the base vote have been advanced, these deviations may also be a result of campaign e ffects. If negative advertising encourages voters to "tune out" from one race, it may also "turn o ff" voters from speci fic candidates, regardless of party identifi cation. Thus, we expect attack advertising to increase the deviation from normal votes.

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q (255), negat (120), e (90), candid (90), advertis (87), campaign (74), ad (65), vote (63), 1 (60), 2 (57), variabl (55), voter (54), model (53), deviat (53), ect (52), air (48), 0 (47), elect (43), polit (39), presidenti (37), qq (33),
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MLA Citation:

Key, Ellen. and Gross, Wendy. "A New Twist: Negative Campaigning and Normal Vote Deviations in Senate and Gubernatorial Elections" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the APSA 2008 Annual Meeting, Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts, Aug 28, 2008 <Not Available>. 2008-12-10 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p279858_index.html>

APA Citation:

Key, E. M. and Gross, W. , 2008-08-28 "A New Twist: Negative Campaigning and Normal Vote Deviations in Senate and Gubernatorial Elections" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the APSA 2008 Annual Meeting, Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2008-12-10 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p279858_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Media coverage, including advertising, tunes voters in to a political campaign and informs them about candidates and their positions. Positive and negative ads differ, however, in the quality and quantity of information they convey about candidates. While campaign managers advise candidates to "Go negative early, often, and right through election day, if necessary" (Kamber 1997, 46), scholars of political advertising have yet to reach a consensus regarding the eff ects of this advice on voters' attitudes, election outcomes, and the ultimate consequences for a democratic system. At best, research indicates that voters do not like negative ads but that the ads are e ffective to a degree.

This paper extends the analysis of advertising and election outcomes by exploring the eff ects of timing, tone, and exposure to negative television advertising on short term deviations from state-level normal votes in U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races. This study furthers the current literature in two fashions; fi rst, we examine the influence of attack advertising on actual election outcomes rather than intentions. Second, we theorize that negative advertising does not simply activate or deactivate potential voters but that it also encourages voters to think beyond the traditional categorization of party identi fication. While many justi fications for deviations from the base vote have been advanced, these deviations may also be a result of campaign e ffects. If negative advertising encourages voters to "tune out" from one race, it may also "turn o ff" voters from speci fic candidates, regardless of party identifi cation. Thus, we expect attack advertising to increase the deviation from normal votes.

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Document Type: application/pdf
Page count: 41
Word count: 8047
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A New Twist: Negative Campaigning and Normal Vote Deviations in Senate and Gubernatorial Elections August 21 2008 Ellen Key Wendy Gross Department of Political Science Department of Political Science Stony Brook University Stanford University ellen.key@sunysb.edu wtgross@stanford.edu Paper prepared for the 2008 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association August 28-31 Boston MA Abstract Media coverage including advertising tunes voters in to a political campaign and informs them about candidates and their positions. Positive and negative ads differ however
4 .3 2 Studentized residuals Density .2 0 .1 -2 0 -4 -2 0 2 4 Studentized residuals -4 Kernel density estimate -4 -2 0 2 4 Normal density Inverse Normal 39


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