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Racial “Threat” and Voting for the Extreme Right: The Contextual Determinants of Support for the British National Party in the 2002 and 2003 English Local Elections

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Until recently, Britain seemed impervious to the trend in many West European countries of growing electoral support for extreme right parties. However, the British National Party (BNP) has emerged as an increasingly viable force in local elections in many parts of England in the past few years, even winning seats on a few local councils. This paper investigates the contextual determinants of support for the BNP in the 2002 and 2003 local elections in England. Aggregate electoral data at the ward level for each district council that held elections in these years are matched to Census statistics and other contextual data. These data are used to estimate multivariate models for two dependent variables: whether or not the BNP contested an election and the BNP’s percentage of the white vote in a ward. The findings of this paper suggest that support for the BNP is greatest in districts with large populations of ethnic minorities, especially Pakistanis and Bangladeshis. However, within these districts, it is not necessarily those whites who live in the most ethnically diverse wards who are most supportive of the extreme right. The socio-economic composition of a ward appears to be more important for the BNP’s electoral prospects than its ethnic composition. It is in the most economically deprived urban areas that the BNP seems to have its strongest foothold. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for the future electoral viability of the extreme right in England.

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bnp (183), elect (90), district (90), vote (86), parti (83), ward (81), right (74), white (63), support (63), candid (60), local (60), extrem (58), popul (57), ethnic (56), elector (56), nation (51), 2002 (50), polit (50), level (45), 2003 (42), area (39),

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Extreme right, voting, England
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Bowyer, Benjamin. "Racial “Threat” and Voting for the Extreme Right: The Contextual Determinants of Support for the British National Party in the 2002 and 2003 English Local Elections" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, Sep 01, 2005 <Not Available>. 2008-10-09 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p41449_index.html>

APA Citation:

Bowyer, B. T. , 2005-09-01 "Racial “Threat” and Voting for the Extreme Right: The Contextual Determinants of Support for the British National Party in the 2002 and 2003 English Local Elections" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC Online <PDF>. 2008-10-09 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p41449_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Until recently, Britain seemed impervious to the trend in many West European countries of growing electoral support for extreme right parties. However, the British National Party (BNP) has emerged as an increasingly viable force in local elections in many parts of England in the past few years, even winning seats on a few local councils. This paper investigates the contextual determinants of support for the BNP in the 2002 and 2003 local elections in England. Aggregate electoral data at the ward level for each district council that held elections in these years are matched to Census statistics and other contextual data. These data are used to estimate multivariate models for two dependent variables: whether or not the BNP contested an election and the BNP’s percentage of the white vote in a ward. The findings of this paper suggest that support for the BNP is greatest in districts with large populations of ethnic minorities, especially Pakistanis and Bangladeshis. However, within these districts, it is not necessarily those whites who live in the most ethnically diverse wards who are most supportive of the extreme right. The socio-economic composition of a ward appears to be more important for the BNP’s electoral prospects than its ethnic composition. It is in the most economically deprived urban areas that the BNP seems to have its strongest foothold. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for the future electoral viability of the extreme right in England.

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Document Type: PDF
Page count: 34
Word count: 10603
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RACIAL “THREAT” AND VOTING FOR THE EXTREME RIGHT: THE CONTEXTUAL DETERMINANTS OF SUPPORT FOR THE BRITISH NATIONAL PARTY IN THE 2002 AND 2003 ENGLISH LOCAL ELECTIONS Benjamin T. Bowyer Department of Government The College of William and Mary Williamsburg VA 23185 btbowy@wm.edu Abstract Until recently Britain seemed impervious to the trend in many West European countries of growing electoral support for extreme right parties. However the British National Party (BNP) has emerged as an increasingly viable force in local
action in Britain edited by R. Miles and A. Phizacklea. Boston: Routledge & Kegan. Taylor Stan. 1980. A Reply to Whiteley. British Journal of Political Science 10 (2):268- 270. Taylor Stan. 1982. The National Front in English politics. London: MacMillan. The Electoral Commission. 2002. Voter engagement among black and minority ethnic communities. London: The Electoral Commission. Whiteley Paul. 1979. The National Front Vote in the 1977 GLC Elections: An Aggregate Data Analysis. British Journal of Political Science 9 (3):370-380.


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