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Turnout, Registration, and Voter Mobilization Effects in the 2004 Presidential Election |
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Abstract:
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In the weeks leading up to the 2004 election, there was ample speculation about how high turnout would be and what effect it would have on the outcome. It is now clear that voter mobilization efforts were not only unprecedented, but also fairly successful at increasing the number of people who voted in the election. What is less clear is what effect high levels of involvement had on the election outcome. This paper examines this subject through an analysis of the relationship between aggregate turnout and vote totals drawn from counties from the continental United States. The analysis supports two preliminary conclusions. First, Republicans received more votes in areas where turnout was higher, though this likely reflects a correlation between the factors associated with both turnout and Republican votes. Second, Democrats benefited in those counties where voter turnout was higher than we would expect given the socioeconomic characteristics of the county. |
Most Common Document Word Stems:
turnout (137), voter (92), counti (82), vote (68), mobil (48), elect (47), registr (46), polit (43), state (43), democrat (41), 2004 (36), level (35), higher (35), result (34), analysi (32), effect (30), variabl (29), republican (28), 2 (27), error (26), vap (26), |
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Association:
Name: American Political Science Association URL: http://www.apsanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| McClurg, Scott. "Turnout, Registration, and Voter Mobilization Effects in the 2004 Presidential Election" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, Sep 01, 2005 <Not Available>. 2008-12-12 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p41522_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| McClurg, S. D. , 2005-09-01 "Turnout, Registration, and Voter Mobilization Effects in the 2004 Presidential Election" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2008-12-12 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p41522_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Review Method: Peer Reviewed Abstract: In the weeks leading up to the 2004 election, there was ample speculation about how high turnout would be and what effect it would have on the outcome. It is now clear that voter mobilization efforts were not only unprecedented, but also fairly successful at increasing the number of people who voted in the election. What is less clear is what effect high levels of involvement had on the election outcome. This paper examines this subject through an analysis of the relationship between aggregate turnout and vote totals drawn from counties from the continental United States. The analysis supports two preliminary conclusions. First, Republicans received more votes in areas where turnout was higher, though this likely reflects a correlation between the factors associated with both turnout and Republican votes. Second, Democrats benefited in those counties where voter turnout was higher than we would expect given the socioeconomic characteristics of the county. |
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application/pdf |
| Page count: |
31 |
| Word count: |
7954 |
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| Turnout Registration and Voter Mobilization Effects in the 2004 Presidential Election: A County-Level Analysis Scott D. McClurg Assistant Professor Department of Political Science Southern Illinois University Mailcode 4501 Carbondale IL 62901 mcclurg@siu.edu W: 618-453-3191 F: 618-453-3163 Version 1.1 August 25th 2005 Paper prepared for presentation at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association Washington D.C. September 1-4 2005. I am grateful to Brady Baybeck and David Darmofal for their advice on obtaining U.S. Census Data. David Kimball |
| 29 0.67 0.67 0.13 VT 1.13 -0.34 0.90 14 0.68 0.71 0.04 VA -0.47 -0.79 -0.69 134 0.58 0.70 0.08 WA 0.72 1.49 -0.74 39 0.65 0.81 0.03 WV -0.48 -0.65 -0.33 55 0.54 0.65 0.06 WI -0.51 72 0.74 WY -0.18 1.08 0.59 23 0.68 0.98 0.03 a Insufficient counties for analysis (n=3) b Insufficient counties for analysis (n=5) 31 |
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