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Do State-Level Ballot Measures Affect Presidential Elections? Gay Marriage and the 2004 Election |
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Abstract:
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This study draws from agenda-setting and voter mobilization theories to develop hypotheses about how state-level ballot measures affected vote choice in the 2004 presidential election. We find that the gay marriage ballot measures affected the 2004 issue agenda and had both direct and conditional effects on Bush support. Nationally, gay marriage was more likely to be cited as an issue used to evaluate candidates by residents of states with marriage ban propositions, and respondents concerned about gay marriage and residing in state with the issue on the ballot were 20 percent more likely to vote for Bush, all else equal. The effect of the gay marriage bans were large and substantively significant compared to other issue concerns in the presidential election, swamping the effect of the economy and rivaling that of the Iraq war. We also find that the ballot measures appear to have mobilized turnout of voters supporting the gay marriage ban in Ohio and Arkansas, and that voters motivated to turnout by ballot measures in these states were significantly more likely to vote for Bush. The research is among the first to show that state ballot propositions can affect national candidate elections. |
Most Common Document Word Stems:
marriag (219), gay (190), state (177), ballot (167), issu (161), bush (139), support (135), measur (130), effect (128), vote (128), ban (115), presidenti (87), voter (86), 2004 (83), ohio (77), candid (76), import (75), elect (74), 000 (73), mobil (61), 1 (61), |
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ballot propositions, 2004 elections, presidential voting, initiatives and referenda, direct democracy, candidate elections |
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Association:
Name: American Political Science Association URL: http://www.apsanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Donovan, Todd., Tolbert, Caroline. and Smith, Daniel. "Do State-Level Ballot Measures Affect Presidential Elections? Gay Marriage and the 2004 Election" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, Sep 01, 2005 <Not Available>. 2008-10-09 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p41562_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Donovan, T. , Tolbert, C. J. and Smith, D. , 2005-09-01 "Do State-Level Ballot Measures Affect Presidential Elections? Gay Marriage and the 2004 Election" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2008-10-09 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p41562_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Review Method: Peer Reviewed Abstract: This study draws from agenda-setting and voter mobilization theories to develop hypotheses about how state-level ballot measures affected vote choice in the 2004 presidential election. We find that the gay marriage ballot measures affected the 2004 issue agenda and had both direct and conditional effects on Bush support. Nationally, gay marriage was more likely to be cited as an issue used to evaluate candidates by residents of states with marriage ban propositions, and respondents concerned about gay marriage and residing in state with the issue on the ballot were 20 percent more likely to vote for Bush, all else equal. The effect of the gay marriage bans were large and substantively significant compared to other issue concerns in the presidential election, swamping the effect of the economy and rivaling that of the Iraq war. We also find that the ballot measures appear to have mobilized turnout of voters supporting the gay marriage ban in Ohio and Arkansas, and that voters motivated to turnout by ballot measures in these states were significantly more likely to vote for Bush. The research is among the first to show that state ballot propositions can affect national candidate elections. |
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application/pdf |
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46 |
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13403 |
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| Do State-Level Ballot Measures Affect Presidential Elections? Gay Marriage and the 2004 Election Todd Donovan Western Washington University Caroline Tolbert Kent State University Daniel Smith University of Florida Abstract This study draws from agenda-setting and voter mobilization theories to develop hypotheses about how state-level ballot measures affected vote choice in the 2004 presidential election. National opinion data are used to test if concerns about gay marriage had greater salience for voters in states where amendments banning gay marriage were |
| Caroline Ramona McNeal and Daniel A. Smith. 2003. “Enhancing Civic Engagement: The Effect of Direct Democracy on Political Participation and Knowledge.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 3: 23-41. 45 Tolbert Caroline and Rodney Hero. 1996. “Race/Ethnicity and Direct Democracy: An Analysis of California’s Illegal Immigration Initiative.” Journal of Politics 58: 806-818. Valentino Nicholas A. 1999. “Crime News and the Priming of Racial Attitudes during Evaluations of the President.” Public Opinion Quarterly. 63: 293-320. West Darrell M. 1997. Air Wars: |
Similar Titles:
Did Ballot Order Matter at The Epicenter? : An Evaluation of Candidate Ballot Order Effects in the 2004 Ohio Elections
Turnout, Registration, and Voter Mobilization Effects in the 2004 Presidential Election
Determinants of Electoral Support for Anti-Gay Marriage Constitutional Amendments: An Examination of 2006 Votes on Ballot Measures in the States
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