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A Geopolitical Analysis of a Balkanized Iraq; the Political, Economic and Military Viability of Trisected Iraqi Ethnic States. |
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Abstract:
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The Bush Administration’s definition of political success in post-Saddam Iraq has changed almost as frequently as their rationale for the initial military invasion. Gone are the heroically optimistic predictions of peace, economic development, religious tolerance, and multi-cultural civil society in Iraq, which would then serve as the first falling domino in an irresistible cascade of democratization throughout the Middle East (Danner 2002, Gaddis 2002, White House 2002). Chastened by rising military, financial, and political costs, the Administration now speaks more soberly of satisfaction with a fairly stable, some-day reasonably democratic government for the New Iraq (Diamond 2005, Wright 2005).
Despite the fact that the characterization of success has been a moving target, one definition of abject political failure in Iraq has remained a constant: the fragmentation of the country into separate, possibly warring ethno-religious enclaves. The Bush Administration’s emphatic warnings regarding the consequences of Iraqi balkanization have been echoed by the governments of at least eight Arab countries in the region.
The heuristic exploration of just such a hypothetically fragmented Iraq is the subject of this paper. Specifically, it will apply traditional geopolitical methodologies of analysis to assess the political, economic, and military viability of an Iraq trisected into Sunni, Shi’a and Kurdish political entities. In doing so, the paper will trace the roots of ethno-sectarian conflict in Iraq and compare Iraq to two divergent models of national devolution. |
Most Common Document Word Stems:
iraq (68), state (54), polit (54), would (38), geopolit (31), ethnic (30), group (27), iraqi (23), militari (22), sunni (22), countri (22), shi (21), one (19), econom (18), nation (18), new (17), war (16), peac (16), power (15), kurdish (15), border (15), |
Author's Keywords:
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Iraq, geopolitics, fragmentation, Sunni, Kurd, ethnic, civil war, Middle East, Hussein, geography, foreign policy, |
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Association:
Name: American Political Science Association URL: http://www.apsanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Vanzo, John. "A Geopolitical Analysis of a Balkanized Iraq; the Political, Economic and Military Viability of Trisected Iraqi Ethnic States." Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, Sep 01, 2005 <Not Available>. 2008-10-09 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p42194_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Vanzo, J. P. , 2005-09-01 "A Geopolitical Analysis of a Balkanized Iraq; the Political, Economic and Military Viability of Trisected Iraqi Ethnic States." Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC Online <PDF>. 2008-10-09 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p42194_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Review Method: Peer Reviewed Abstract: The Bush Administration’s definition of political success in post-Saddam Iraq has changed almost as frequently as their rationale for the initial military invasion. Gone are the heroically optimistic predictions of peace, economic development, religious tolerance, and multi-cultural civil society in Iraq, which would then serve as the first falling domino in an irresistible cascade of democratization throughout the Middle East (Danner 2002, Gaddis 2002, White House 2002). Chastened by rising military, financial, and political costs, the Administration now speaks more soberly of satisfaction with a fairly stable, some-day reasonably democratic government for the New Iraq (Diamond 2005, Wright 2005).
Despite the fact that the characterization of success has been a moving target, one definition of abject political failure in Iraq has remained a constant: the fragmentation of the country into separate, possibly warring ethno-religious enclaves. The Bush Administration’s emphatic warnings regarding the consequences of Iraqi balkanization have been echoed by the governments of at least eight Arab countries in the region.
The heuristic exploration of just such a hypothetically fragmented Iraq is the subject of this paper. Specifically, it will apply traditional geopolitical methodologies of analysis to assess the political, economic, and military viability of an Iraq trisected into Sunni, Shi’a and Kurdish political entities. In doing so, the paper will trace the roots of ethno-sectarian conflict in Iraq and compare Iraq to two divergent models of national devolution. |
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9 |
| Word count: |
5178 |
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| A Geopolitical Analysis of a Balkanized Iraq; The Political Economic and Military Viability of Hypothetically Trisected Iraqi States {Summary Version} John P. Vanzo Ph.D. Bainbridge College Bainbridge Georgia jvanzo@bainbridge.edu A paper prepared for presentation at the 101st Meeting & Exhibition of the American Political Science Association September 1-4 2005 in Washington D.C. INTRODUCTION The Bush Administration’s definition of political success in post-Saddam Iraq has changed almost as frequently as their rationale for the initial military invasion. Gone are the |
| 1997. Separation or Unity? A Model for Solving Ethnic Conflicts.” Politics and the Life Sciences 16 (Sept). Vanzo John. 1999. “Border Configuration and Conflict” in Paul Diehl (Editor) The Roadmap to War. Nashville TN: Vanderbilt University Press. Vasquez John. 1993. The War Puzzle. New York NY: Cambridge University Press. White House The (Executive Office of the President). 2002. “The National Security Strategy of the United States of America.” Washington D.C.: The White House. September 17 2002. Wright Robin and |
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