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Reasoned Choice and Hazardous Options: Alternative Choice Heuristics and Knowledge

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Abstract:

Theorists have long argued that the prospects for democratic politics depend on the ability of citizens to make reasoned choices. Nevertheless, since the pioneering work of Phillip Converse (1964), empirical research has consistently found that average American's know little about politics and policy. The crux of the debate concerns whether citizens with little political knowledge can, despite their ignorance, make reasoned political choices (Delli Carpini and Keeter 1996; Lupia and McCubbins 1998). Our interest is in how citizens with varying levels of political and substantive knowledge make choices when faced with potentially hazardous environmental policies, using the case of nuclear waste disposal in New Mexico. As the host to the world's only operating permanent nuclear waste disposal facility, New Mexico has long been the stage for debates over the risks and benefits of nuclear waste disposal options. We employ data from statewide New Mexico RDD telephone surveys (n=1001) collected in the spring of 2001 to model policy preferences regarding the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) using a set of possible decision heuristics as independent variables: perceived risks, political ideology, trust in political elites, and perceptions of the accountability of relevant policy officials. We then test to see whether the ability to use the differing heuristics to make policy choices is affected by the political and substantive policy knowledge of the respondents. We find that substantive knowledge has a greater influence than political knowledge, and that the effect of knowledge varies across the different types of heuristics. These results indicate that, depending in part on the issue context, publics may have recourse to an array of heuristics, and that some may be readily accessible to even the least knowledgeable citizen. More knowledgeable members of the public, in turn, have access to a richer array of heuristics for making decisions about policy preferences

Most Common Document Word Stems:

knowledg (113), heurist (92), choic (81), wipp (79), polit (79), polici (74), public (59), reason (55), model (50), issu (46), risk (46), use (39), would (38), radiat (37), account (35), citizen (35), new (34), make (32), specif (31), option (30), decis (30),

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Keywords: public opinion, reasoned choice, public policy, environmental policy, political knowledge, heuristics
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Name: American Political Science Association
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http://www.apsanet.org


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MLA Citation:

Jenkins-Smith, Hank., Silva, Carol. and Theobald, Nick. "Reasoned Choice and Hazardous Options: Alternative Choice Heuristics and Knowledge" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston Marriott Copley Place, Sheraton Boston & Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts, Aug 28, 2002 <Not Available>. 2008-10-10 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p66224_index.html>

APA Citation:

Jenkins-Smith, H. C., Silva, C. L. and Theobald, N. A. , 2002-08-28 "Reasoned Choice and Hazardous Options: Alternative Choice Heuristics and Knowledge" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston Marriott Copley Place, Sheraton Boston & Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts Online <.PDF>. 2008-10-10 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p66224_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Theorists have long argued that the prospects for democratic politics depend on the ability of citizens to make reasoned choices. Nevertheless, since the pioneering work of Phillip Converse (1964), empirical research has consistently found that average American's know little about politics and policy. The crux of the debate concerns whether citizens with little political knowledge can, despite their ignorance, make reasoned political choices (Delli Carpini and Keeter 1996; Lupia and McCubbins 1998). Our interest is in how citizens with varying levels of political and substantive knowledge make choices when faced with potentially hazardous environmental policies, using the case of nuclear waste disposal in New Mexico. As the host to the world's only operating permanent nuclear waste disposal facility, New Mexico has long been the stage for debates over the risks and benefits of nuclear waste disposal options. We employ data from statewide New Mexico RDD telephone surveys (n=1001) collected in the spring of 2001 to model policy preferences regarding the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) using a set of possible decision heuristics as independent variables: perceived risks, political ideology, trust in political elites, and perceptions of the accountability of relevant policy officials. We then test to see whether the ability to use the differing heuristics to make policy choices is affected by the political and substantive policy knowledge of the respondents. We find that substantive knowledge has a greater influence than political knowledge, and that the effect of knowledge varies across the different types of heuristics. These results indicate that, depending in part on the issue context, publics may have recourse to an array of heuristics, and that some may be readily accessible to even the least knowledgeable citizen. More knowledgeable members of the public, in turn, have access to a richer array of heuristics for making decisions about policy preferences

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Document Type: .pdf
Page count: 25
Word count: 8492
Text sample:
Reasoned Choice and Hazardous Options: Alternative Choice Heuristics and Knowledge Hank C. Jenkins­Smith George Bush School of Government and Public Service Carol L. Silva Department of Political Science Nick A. Theobald Department of Political Science Texas A&M University College Station Texas Abstract Theorists have long argued that the prospects for democratic politics depend on the ability of citizens to make reasoned choices. Nevertheless since the pioneering work of Phillip Converse (1964) empirical research has consistently found that average American's
457.00* Pseudo R 2 0.33 0.08 0.14 0.09 0.08 0.37 Correctly Classified 81.6% 68.3% 73.1% 68.3% 69.9% 82.7% * Significant at p<0.05; two­tailed test for demographic variables one­tail test for other variables. a. The Age coefficient and standard error are multiplied by 10 to facilitate presentation Reasoned Choice and Hazardous Options 24 Table 3. Correlations Between Knowledge and Heuristic Model Residuals General Political Knowledge Issue­Specific Knowledge Difference in r's (t­statistic) Risk Model Residuals ­0.128 (0.004) ­0.166 (0.000) ­0.038 (­0.825)


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