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Willing to Believe: Explaining the Belief that Saddam Hussein aided with the September 11th Attacks |
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Abstract:
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Before, during, and after the major combat operations in Iraq of Gulf War II, public opinion polls showed that a large proportion of Americans – a majority in some cases – believed that Saddam Hussein was involved in the September 11th attacks. This paper uses June 2004 data collected by the National Annenberg Election Survey (NAES) to test how well John Zaller’s model of persuasion predicts this belief. Zaller’s model holds that the probability of holding a certain belief depends largely upon the probability of being exposed to a certain message and the acceptance of the message. Preliminary analyses suggest that the model does indeed largely explain belief that Saddam Hussein aided the September 11th terrorists. An already-completed analysis of NAES data gathered in June 2003 provided evidence that 1) approval for President Bush was highly correlated with the likelihood of believing in Saddam Hussein’s involvement in the September 11th attacks and 2) frequency of newspaper-readership interacted significantly with approval for President Bush to predict likelihood of believing in Saddam’s involvement. In other words, the more Bush detractors read the newspaper, the less likely they were to believe in Saddam’s involvement. One year later, NAES asked again about Saddam’s involvement. This paper will use both the June 2003 data and the June 2004 data to engage in a more precise test of Zaller’s model with regard to beliefs about Saddam’s involvement in the September 11th attacks. |
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Association:
Name: American Association For Public Opinion Association
URL: http://www.aapor.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Tisinger, Russ. "Willing to Believe: Explaining the Belief that Saddam Hussein aided with the September 11th Attacks" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Association For Public Opinion Association, Fontainebleau Resort, Miami Beach, FL, <Not Available>. 2009-05-25 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p17096_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Tisinger, R. "Willing to Believe: Explaining the Belief that Saddam Hussein aided with the September 11th Attacks" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Association For Public Opinion Association, Fontainebleau Resort, Miami Beach, FL <Not Available>. 2009-05-25 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p17096_index.html |
Publication Type: Paper/Poster Proposal
Abstract: Before, during, and after the major combat operations in Iraq of Gulf War II, public opinion polls showed that a large proportion of Americans – a majority in some cases – believed that Saddam Hussein was involved in the September 11th attacks. This paper uses June 2004 data collected by the National Annenberg Election Survey (NAES) to test how well John Zaller’s model of persuasion predicts this belief. Zaller’s model holds that the probability of holding a certain belief depends largely upon the probability of being exposed to a certain message and the acceptance of the message. Preliminary analyses suggest that the model does indeed largely explain belief that Saddam Hussein aided the September 11th terrorists. An already-completed analysis of NAES data gathered in June 2003 provided evidence that 1) approval for President Bush was highly correlated with the likelihood of believing in Saddam Hussein’s involvement in the September 11th attacks and 2) frequency of newspaper-readership interacted significantly with approval for President Bush to predict likelihood of believing in Saddam’s involvement. In other words, the more Bush detractors read the newspaper, the less likely they were to believe in Saddam’s involvement. One year later, NAES asked again about Saddam’s involvement. This paper will use both the June 2003 data and the June 2004 data to engage in a more precise test of Zaller’s model with regard to beliefs about Saddam’s involvement in the September 11th attacks. |
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Similar Titles:
Failure to Disabuse: Exposure, Reception, and the Myth of Manipulating the Public into the Saddam-September 11th Belief
Saddam and September 11th: A Model for Predicting the Belief that Saddam Aided in the September 11th attacks
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