Hypothesis (i) If socioeconomic conditions worsen and the number of immigrants in society increases then
interest-based opposition to immigrants will increase and so will support for ERAI parties.
Hypothesis (ii) If the number of immigrants in society increases then identity-based opposition to immigrants will
increase and so will support for ERAI parties.
In addition, given that interest-based opposition centers on more governmentally relevant issues such as crime and
unemployment while identity-based opposition focuses on issues such as inter-racial marriage and immigrant as
neighbors we would expect interest-based opposition to immigrants be more strongly linked to political expression
(i.e. voting) than identity-based opposition.
Hypothesis (iii) All things being equal, interest-based opposition will be more strongly associated with ERAI party
support than identity-based opposition.
(2) Political opportunity structure – this type of explanation of anti-immigrant voting focuses on the constellation
of forces in the immediate and longer-term political environment that are conducive to promoting support for an
ERAI party. In addition to the systemic factors that promote openness to smaller political parties (i.e. the openness
of the electoral system) this pathway would argue that ERAI parties benefit particularly when a left-wing
government is in power and the mainstream right-wing alternative occupies a more centrist or ‘soft’ right position.
Such a constellation of political forces makes a hardline anti-immigrant party an attractive option to vote for, since
voters see the established elites as offering no solution to the problem.
Hypothesis (iv) If a left-wing government is in power then support for ERAI parties will increase.
Hypothesis (v) The closer to the center that the major right-wing party is then the greater the support for ERAI
parties will be.
(3) Echo chamber of prejudice – this third pathway to anti-immigrant voting examines the role of broader societal
opinion in influencing the support for these parties. While individuals may be motivated by their personal sense of
grievance to support ERAI parties, this perspective argues that there is an additional environmental or aggregate
effect of rises in these types of opposition. A rising critical chorus of voices against immigrants may serve confirm
to voters that others share their feelings and that it is ‘ok’ to support the extreme right party. Thus, the higher the
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Convention