RESEARCH DESIGN
In order to investigate the propositions stated above, three separate Eurobarometers from 1988, 1994 and
2000 are pooled together to examine the variation among individuals as well as between countries and years.
In
addition to the cross-sectional survey data, annual socioeconomic and political data was collected for the years
1987 to 1988, 1993 to 1994, and 1999 to 2000 to examine contextual factors and cross-level effects.
The dependent variable is expressed support, “if a general election were held tomorrow,” for a party that
is identified as explicitly associated with the anti-immigrant issue.
This definition of the extreme-right anti-
immigrant (ERAI) parties means that the dependent variable is a categorical variable. A low number of
respondents were classified as ERAI supporters, in the pooled sample (n=40,968), 1.94 percent expressed support
for ERAI parties.
In order to test the grievance intensification arguments, both individual and contextual variables were
used. At the individual level, the variable of most interest is the type of opposition being articulated. Is an
increasing level of one type of grievance orientation more strongly linked to support for an anti-immigrant party
than another? The two different types of grievances against immigrants, identity-based and interest-based, are
constructed using additive scales. Identity-based grievances are measured using three different questions in each
Eurobarometer in which respondents are asked if they agree with statements about having immigrants as
neighbors, as relations, and how far immigrant children undermine the educational quality.
Interest-based
grievances are also measured with three questions that ask whether respondents agree that immigrants exploit the
social welfare system, increase unemployment, and increase crime.
The contextual variables selected to examine the grievance intensification thesis focus on the
socioeconomic environment that is most likely to increase individuals’ grievances against immigrants. Specifically,
we measure declining socioeconomic conditions and rising foreign population levels, as well as more diffuse, non-
experiential measures, such as an increase in the numbers of asylum seekers.
The unemployment rate from the
year prior to the administration of the Eurobarometer survey is a socioeconomic measure. Visibility of immigrants
is measured by the percentage of the population that are non-EU nationals in each country.
natural logarithm of the number of asylum seekers is included as an indirect measure of the perceived “threat” of
increasing numbers of immigrants.
The political opportunity thesis is tested by variables measuring the ideological environment in which the
parties are operating. Based on the preceding discussion the conditions we expect to be conducive to mobilising
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Convention