Author's Keywords: causes of war, rationality, misperception, miscalculation, win, loss, deterrence, rationalist, rational choice, conflict, peace	Convention Convention is an application service for managing large or small academic conferences, annual meetings, and other types of events! Submission - Custom fields, multiple submission types, tracks, audio visual, multiple upload formats, automatic conversion to pdf. Review - Peer Review, Bulk reviewer assignment, bulk emails, ranking, z-score statistics, and multiple worksheets! Reports - Many standard and custom reports generated while you wait. Print programs with participant indexes, event grids, and more! Scheduling - Flexible and convenient grid scheduling within rooms and buildings. Conflict checking and advanced filtering. Communication - Bulk email tools to help your administrators send reminders and responses. Use form letters, a message center, and much more! Management - Search tools, duplicate people management, editing tools, submission transfers, many tools to manage a variety of conference management headaches! Click here for more information.
Association: Name: American Political Science Association URL: http://www.apsanet.org
Citation: URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p42170_index.html Direct Link: HTML Code:

"Is War Rational? The Extent of Misperception and Miscalculation as Causes of War" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, Sep 01, 2005 <Not Available>. 2009-05-25 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p42170_index.html>

, 2005-09-01 "Is War Rational? The Extent of Misperception and Miscalculation as Causes of War" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC Online <PDF>. 2009-05-25 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p42170_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Review Method: Peer Reviewed Abstract: Is war a rational, well-calculated pursuit of states, or is war more often caused by miscalculation and misperception? Assumptions about the extent of rationality underlie policy debates on subjects ranging from deterrence to missile defense. The rationality assumption also divides theorists and theories on the causes of war into two camps. For example, many realists and expected utility theorists fall into the rationalist camp, while political psychologists and students of bureaucratic politics fall into the miscalculation and misperception camp. Despite this schism, few studies empirically test the overall extent of rationality in decisions for war. Using our �Is War Rational?� database, we find that prior to 1900, war initiators won over seventy percent of the time. Since 1945, only about one-third of initiators win. Assuming that states initiate wars planning to win, the utility of war has declined dramatically, and miscalculation and misperception have come to dominate decisions for war. Deterrence is getting harder. The utility of rationalist approaches to the causes of war is decreasing. Causes of miscalculation and misperception deserve more study.

Is War Rational? The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War

The Causes and Consequences of Time Legislators Spend Fundraising for Themselves and for their Caucuses: Modeling Effects of Institutional Design and Personal and Political Context in State Legislatures