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Is War Rational? The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War |
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Abstract:
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Is war a rational, well-calculated pursuit of states, or is war more often caused by miscalculation and misperception? Assumptions about the extent of rationality underlie policy debates on subjects ranging from deterrence to missile defense. The rationality assumption also divides theorists and theories on the causes of war into two camps. For example, many realists and expected utility theorists fall into the rationalist camp, while political psychologists and students of bureaucratic politics fall into the miscalculation and misperception camp. Despite this schism, few studies empirically test the overall extent of rationality in decisions for war. Using our “Is War Rational?” database, we find that prior to 1900, war initiators won over seventy percent of the time. Since 1945, only about one-third of initiators win. Assuming that states initiate wars planning to win, the utility of war has declined dramatically, and miscalculation and misperception have come to dominate decisions for war. |
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war (255), initi (229), joiner (150), win (124), mid (114), outcom (109), cow (103), rate (101), w (96), ration (80), power (72), l (72), mispercept (68), time (67), miscalcul (67), state (62), n (60), 1 (58), relcap (52), 2 (52), 3 (52), |
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Association:
Name: American Political Science Association
URL: http://www.apsanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Lindley, Dan. "Is War Rational? The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hilton Chicago and the Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL, Sep 02, 2004 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p60109_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Lindley, D. , 2004-09-02 "Is War Rational? The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hilton Chicago and the Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p60109_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Is war a rational, well-calculated pursuit of states, or is war more often caused by miscalculation and misperception? Assumptions about the extent of rationality underlie policy debates on subjects ranging from deterrence to missile defense. The rationality assumption also divides theorists and theories on the causes of war into two camps. For example, many realists and expected utility theorists fall into the rationalist camp, while political psychologists and students of bureaucratic politics fall into the miscalculation and misperception camp. Despite this schism, few studies empirically test the overall extent of rationality in decisions for war. Using our “Is War Rational?” database, we find that prior to 1900, war initiators won over seventy percent of the time. Since 1945, only about one-third of initiators win. Assuming that states initiate wars planning to win, the utility of war has declined dramatically, and miscalculation and misperception have come to dominate decisions for war. |
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| Document Type: |
.PDF |
| Page count: |
46 |
| Word count: |
14083 |
| Text sample: |
| Dan Lindley and Ryan Schildkraut1 "Is War Rational? The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War" Prepared for presentation at the: American Political Science Association Conference Chicago IL Panel 19-16: International Cooperation: Theoretical Insights; 8:00 AM Friday Sept. 3 2004 "By every rational standard North Korea should still be deterred. In practice however few wars are the result of rational calculations managed crises and highly intellectual escalation ladders." (Cordesman 2002) "War seems to many to be an |
| John A. ed. What Do We Know About War? (Lanham MD: Rowman & Littlefield 2000) Walt Stephen M. The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca NY: Cornell University Press 1987) Waltz Kenneth Theory of International Politics (New York NY: Random House 1979) Wang Kevin and James Lee Ray "Beginners and Winners: The Fate of Interstate Wars Involving Great Powers Since 1495 " International Studies Quarterly Vol. 38 No. 1 (March 1994) Yamamoto Yoshinobu and Stuart A. Bremer "Wider Wars and Restless |
Similar Titles:
Is War Rational? The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War
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Is War Rational? The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War
Is War Rational? The Extent of Misperception and Miscalculation as Causes of War
Is War Rational? The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War
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