(Page 18 of 32) - Gaining traction: How Do Frontrunners Surface Before the Presidential Primaries? authored by Dowdle, Andrew. and Steger, Wayne.

support for Democrats may reflect several factors. The Democratic candidate fields have been
less clearly defined than have Republican candidate fields during the pre-primary year. One
reason is that Democratic presidential candidates tend to enter the nomination campaign later
than do their Republican counter-parts, one effect of which is to make it more difficult for
Democratic Party identifiers to pick a front-runner. Democratic Party identifiers have to wait
longer to see their full range of choices. Another problem for Democrats is that Democrats tend
to have “heavy hitters” who flirt with running but opt not to run. Relatively large numbers of
respondents in Democratic polls have expressed a preference for candidates who do not actually
declare their candidacies. This was particularly problematic in 1976 when Hubert Humphrey
and Ted Kennedy ultimately decided not to run, and again in 1988 and 1992 when Mario Cuomo
decided not to run. In both of these years, it is possible that these candidates would have become
the instantaneous front-runner. By comparison, the only year that Republicans had this
experience was in 1996, when Colin Powell flirted with running for about two months in August
and September of 1995.

Uncertainty about who will seek the Democratic nomination may also have the effect of

freezing commitments by party elites, contributors and party identifiers. Democratic Party
members are more likely than their Republican counter-parts to be undecided in their choices. In
both 1975 and 1991, the majority of respondents in national Gallup polls were either undecided
or supported a candidate not actually running. Only in 1983, 1999 and 2003 did over two third
of respondents pick one of the Democrats running. By comparison, over 80% of respondents in
Gallup polls for Republican races pick one of the candidates running. It may be the case that the
apparent divisions in the Democratic Party have as much to do with the lack of a clear candidate
field as it does with disagreements among factions of the party.

In addition to the pooled results of the quarterly poll averages, we analyzed candidates’

support in national Gallup polls for each quarter to identify trends across the invisible primary.
Tables 4a and 4b present OLS models of candidate position national Gallup polls for Democratic
and Republican races, respectively, for each quarter of the pre-primary year and January of the
primary year.

Table 4a, presenting OLS models for Democratic nomination campaigns provide mixed

support our theoretical expectation that certain effects would fade during the course of the
campaign. Current or former vice presidents received significantly more public support in
national Gallup polls in all but the 2

quarter of the pre-primary year in Democratic nomination

campaigns. The advantage of vice presidents appears to be strongest early in the campaign and
again in January before the caucuses and primaries begin. A similar pattern holds for candidates
who ran in a prior nomination campaign. Being officially in the race has significant effects for
national Gallup poll standing in the second and fourth quarters, but not early and late in the pre-
primary campaign. The effects of network campaign coverage have a similar effect, but appear
to become stronger during the third and fourth quarters into January of the election year.
Democratic candidates’ funds at the beginning of the quarter are significant and positively
related to their standing in national Gallup polls in the first quarter of the pre-primary year and
again in January of the election year.