(Page 8 of 32) - Gaining traction: How Do Frontrunners Surface Before the Presidential Primaries? authored by Dowdle, Andrew. and Steger, Wayne.

getting the attention of potential voters through the network news programs--where most voters
gain their information about candidates. News coverage has been shown to play a major role in
the dynamics of the primary season (Bartels 1985; 1988). Media coverage gives candidates
visibility, name recognition, and prestige (Peabody, Ornstein, and Rhode 1976, 243-34). Greater
media coverage increases name recognition—especially for lesser-known candidates, which may
increase perceptions of a candidate’s viability and ability to attract supporters and raise campaign
funds (Bartels 1988; Abramson, et al. 1992; Mutz 1997). Candidates who receive substantial
media coverage may also need to spend less money building name recognition, enabling them to
conserve their funds for the heavy campaigning during the primaries.

A second way of thinking about candidate coverage can be found in media agenda-setting

studies. In this perspective, the media do not tell voters what to think, but what to think about
(Cohen 1963). This is accomplished through the volume of attention given by media outlets to
certain topics (McCombs and Shaw, 1972; Iyengar and Kinder 1987). With respect to policy
issues, when news coverage focuses more on a particular issue, people are more likely to cite that
issue as the most important concern facing the nation (Iyengar, et al. 1982). The same principle
should apply to candidates. Given the centrality of the horse race in determining the volume of
coverage given to candidates, the volume of news coverage will reflect the relative salience of
the candidates in the nomination campaign. Since most voters get their information from the
mass media, the volume of exposure will also influence the public attention to the candidates.

Candidates' campaign coverage was measured as the frequency of candidate appearances

or mentions in campaign stories on nightly national network news programs.

The variable

excludes network news stories relating to candidates’ governing activities.

Such coverage is

uncorrelated with candidates’ standing in the polls or their performance in the polls (Steger
2002). Only that portion of candidates’ network news coverage relating to the campaign
correlates strongly with candidate standing in the polls and in the primaries. The Vanderbilt
Television Archives were used to generate an event-count of nightly network news stories that
referred to or mentioned candidates campaigning for the presidential nomination of one or the
other major political parties. These event counts were aggregated to get a daily summary count
for each candidate. For instance, if each of the three networks mentioned George W. Bush, his
daily score would be a three. Since a news story may refer to multiple candidates, the number of
candidate-mentions exceeds the actual number of network news stories mentioning candidates in
each nomination campaign. The daily scores for each candidate are then summed to the
quarterly level to get a measure of quarterly campaign coverage comparable to the money
variables. The campaign news variable also is calculated as the amount of coverage received by
a candidate as percentage of the total coverage received by all of the candidates in a given
quarter.

Ideally, a measure of candidates' campaign coverage would include a measure of the tone

coverage. Limitations of the Vanderbilt television archives, however, preclude obtaining a
reliable measure of coverage tone. The network news abstracts can be obtained from the website
at http://tvnews.vanderbilt.edu

Campaign coverage was defined as a news story that mentioned the candidate in the context of

any aspect of the campaign. Candidate views on a policy matter, in which he or she is not
directly involved in the unit of government making decisions, were coded as campaign stories.