18
reversed. … Proponents of peace may be able to relax periodically, but they can
never sleep. Every good thing must be re-won each day.
23
These paragraphs are as good a statement of the possibilistic position as one can find
(unless otherwise noted, in what follows I will use the terms possibilistic position or stance to
mean the positive argument that progress is possible). While Russett and Oneal begin by noting
probabilistic causal hypotheses, they use these to develop an argument about possibility, not
probability, and they italicize the word “possibility” in their own text precisely to underline this
distinction. In the book as a whole, Russett and Oneal devote many pages to elucidating and
testing causal hypotheses, but the paragraphs cited here show that they do not limit themselves to
these tasks. Rather, like the passages from Waltz above, they include text that is clearly geared
toward the realm of practical action. By noting the need for “sound policies” and to re-win good
accomplishments every day, Russett and Oneal are making a call for action, not simply stating a
scientific conclusion.
It is not news that IR theorists often derive policy or action recommendations from their
theories. The point here is that policy-relevant assertions are not always drawn directly from a
discrete cause-effect hypothesis. Some policy advice does take the form of saying “implement
policy or strategy X if you want to achieve outcome Y.” The passages quoted above, however,
do something different. They first take an intermediate step, inferring from a causal analysis a
broader proposition about what is or is not possible in international politics. The action
recommendations then follow from this possibilistic proposition, not from the original causal
hypothesis. In some cases, theorists start with an assertion about possibility and simply skip the
preliminary development of explanatory hypotheses. In short, some of the policy debates
reflected in IR theory derive most directly from claims about possibility, which makes it
worthwhile to examine those claims in their own right.
Possibilistic arguments are found not only in updated statements of Kantian liberalism.
Important statements of social constructivism and critical theory also include an explicitly
possibilistic stance. This is a recurring theme, for example, in Alexander Wendt’s efforts to
develop a constructivist theory of the international system. In the conclusion to his book, Social
Theory of International Politics, Wendt sums up his argument that it
23
ibid., pp. 41-42, emphasis in original.
Convention