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Public Wishes: Policy Preferences, Issue Evolution, and Presidential Voting in Postwar American Politics

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Abstract:

What is the real structure of substantive conflict in American politics during the postwar years? Is it even possible to talk about an ‘issue structure’, about ongoing policy conflict within continuing policy alignments, at the mass and not just the elite level? If so, what is the structure of substantive conflict characterizing the mass politics of our time? How do policy issues cluster, and nest, in the practical environment for mass politics? And how does such an issue structure relate to (and shape) electoral conflict? Has this relationship remained essentially constant over the last half-century, the period when public opinion data are most widely available, or are there major break-points, and when did these occur?

The search for a continuing structure characterizing public preferences on policy conflicts across the postwar period is the principal challenge of this paper. To that end, consistent measures of public preference in four major issue domains—welfare policy, foreign policy, race policy, and social policy—are sought, developed, and analyzed. A theoretical grounding is derived from the literature on postwar political history. An exploratory analysis applies this theoretical grounding to the American National Elections Studies, 1948-2000. A confirmatory analysis is applied to these exploratory findings, as informed by the literature on public opinion in specific issue domains, which provides a further set of independently testable propositions. And the result is an ongoing issue structure.

The application of this structure to voting behavior in presidential elections is then the main secondary task of the paper, yielding what is in effect a pure politics of public policy. In this, social welfare proves to have been the leading policy concern of American voters across the postwar period. But international relations was normally present and often important, while civil rights and cultural values made occasional but still noteworthy contributions. From one side, social welfare also had the most consistent impact. From the other, it was nevertheless international relations that divided the postwar years into coherent periods. By contrast, the domain of civil rights and the domain of cultural values, along with one of the two key aspects of foreign policy—foreign engagement, the continuum from isolationism to internationalism—all changed the actual direction of their partisan impact from the immediate postwar period to the modern era.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

ns (32), fe (27), 12 (16), tabl (15), 15 (15), ww (15), 08 (15), welfar (13), 27 (12), race (12), foreign (11), ad (11), 11 (11), 36 (11), 09 (11), signific (10), 1972 (10), 14 (10), 13 (10), 56 (9), 38 (9),

Author's Keywords:

Issue Evolution, Presidential Elections, Voting, Policy Preferences
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Name: American Political Science Association
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http://www.apsanet.org


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MLA Citation:

Claggett, William. and Shafer, Byron. "Public Wishes: Policy Preferences, Issue Evolution, and Presidential Voting in Postwar American Politics" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia Marriott Hotel, Philadelphia, PA, Aug 18, 2003 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p62388_index.html>

APA Citation:

Claggett, W. and Shafer, B. , 2003-08-18 "Public Wishes: Policy Preferences, Issue Evolution, and Presidential Voting in Postwar American Politics" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia Marriott Hotel, Philadelphia, PA Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p62388_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: What is the real structure of substantive conflict in American politics during the postwar years? Is it even possible to talk about an ‘issue structure’, about ongoing policy conflict within continuing policy alignments, at the mass and not just the elite level? If so, what is the structure of substantive conflict characterizing the mass politics of our time? How do policy issues cluster, and nest, in the practical environment for mass politics? And how does such an issue structure relate to (and shape) electoral conflict? Has this relationship remained essentially constant over the last half-century, the period when public opinion data are most widely available, or are there major break-points, and when did these occur?

The search for a continuing structure characterizing public preferences on policy conflicts across the postwar period is the principal challenge of this paper. To that end, consistent measures of public preference in four major issue domains—welfare policy, foreign policy, race policy, and social policy—are sought, developed, and analyzed. A theoretical grounding is derived from the literature on postwar political history. An exploratory analysis applies this theoretical grounding to the American National Elections Studies, 1948-2000. A confirmatory analysis is applied to these exploratory findings, as informed by the literature on public opinion in specific issue domains, which provides a further set of independently testable propositions. And the result is an ongoing issue structure.

The application of this structure to voting behavior in presidential elections is then the main secondary task of the paper, yielding what is in effect a pure politics of public policy. In this, social welfare proves to have been the leading policy concern of American voters across the postwar period. But international relations was normally present and often important, while civil rights and cultural values made occasional but still noteworthy contributions. From one side, social welfare also had the most consistent impact. From the other, it was nevertheless international relations that divided the postwar years into coherent periods. By contrast, the domain of civil rights and the domain of cultural values, along with one of the two key aspects of foreign policy—foreign engagement, the continuum from isolationism to internationalism—all changed the actual direction of their partisan impact from the immediate postwar period to the modern era.

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Document Type: .PDF
Page count: 12
Word count: 840
Text sample:
Table 8 Postwar Politics Extended: The Two-Variable Model The Late New Deal WW NS 1948: .40 --- 1952: .27 .06 1956: .28 --- 1960: .43 --- The Transition Years WW NS 1964: .57 .34 1968: .52 [.56] .12 [.17] 1972: .80 [.49] .19 [.09] 1976: .55 .08 The Modern Era WW NS 1980: .13 .59 1984: .55 .56 1988: .50 .46 1992: .54 .52 1996: 2000: Table 10 Postwar Politics Elaborated: The Five-Variable Model The Late New Deal WW
The Comprehensive Model Welfare Foreign Race Culture Vietnam NS FE 1948: .38 --- .14 --- --- 1952: .25 .12 .30 .08 -.20 1956: .36 --- --- -.13 --- 1960: .58 --- .24 -.13 .15 1964:* .53 .33 --- --- --- --- 1968:* .67 .39 --- --- --- --- 1972:* .54 --- --- --- --- .40 1976: .45 .08 -.16 --- --- 1980: .14 .56 --- --- --- 1984: .51 .58 --- --- --- 1988: .42 .36 -.27 .15 ---


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