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Sustaining the Peace: Determinants of Civil War Recurrence |
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Abstract:
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The last half century has been characterized as an age of revolution. Civil wars (including revolutionary, secessionist, and anti-colonial revolts) have replace interstate wars as the dominant conflict modality in the international system. Recent research has explored the conditions that determine whether or not a civil war will end in a negotiated settlement or a victory by the government or the rebels. Whatever the outcome, evidence indicates that many of these civil wars recur once they have concluded the first time. In this paper, we will explore the extent of civil war recurrence since the end of World War II and develop a model to explain what characteristics of a civil war and the post-war political order make civil war more or less likely to recur. We test this model with Doyle and Sambanis’s data on civil wars, 1944-1997. The findings suggest that the level of post-war democracy, the presence of international peacekeeping operations, and improvements in economic well-being make civil war less likely to recur. |
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war (255), civil (191), conflict (135), ethnic (60), recurr (58), like (53), post (51), victori (47), end (46), settlement (46), peac (46), govern (40), rebel (40), resum (38), nation (37), model (36), probabl (36), variabl (34), negoti (30), less (28), polit (27), |
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Association:
Name: American Political Science Association
URL: http://www.apsanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Mason, T.. and Quinn, Jason. "Sustaining the Peace: Determinants of Civil War Recurrence" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia Marriott Hotel, Philadelphia, PA, Aug 27, 2003 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p63242_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Mason, T. and Quinn, J. , 2003-08-27 "Sustaining the Peace: Determinants of Civil War Recurrence" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia Marriott Hotel, Philadelphia, PA Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p63242_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The last half century has been characterized as an age of revolution. Civil wars (including revolutionary, secessionist, and anti-colonial revolts) have replace interstate wars as the dominant conflict modality in the international system. Recent research has explored the conditions that determine whether or not a civil war will end in a negotiated settlement or a victory by the government or the rebels. Whatever the outcome, evidence indicates that many of these civil wars recur once they have concluded the first time. In this paper, we will explore the extent of civil war recurrence since the end of World War II and develop a model to explain what characteristics of a civil war and the post-war political order make civil war more or less likely to recur. We test this model with Doyle and Sambanis’s data on civil wars, 1944-1997. The findings suggest that the level of post-war democracy, the presence of international peacekeeping operations, and improvements in economic well-being make civil war less likely to recur. |
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| Document Type: |
.PDF |
| Page count: |
22 |
| Word count: |
9383 |
| Text sample: |
| Sustaining the Peace: Determinants of Civil War Recurrence T. David Mason Johnie Christian Family Professor of Peace Studies Department of Political Science University of North Texas P.O. Box 305340 Denton TX 76203-3053 940-565-2386 (fax: 4818) masontd@unt.edu Jason Quinn Department of Political Science University of Memphis Memphis TN 39152 Abstract The last half century has been characterized as an age of revolution. Civil wars (including revolutionary secessionist and anti-colonial revolts) have replace interstate wars as the dominant conflict modality in |
| It is much easier to give up in a struggle at the beginning when your investment is low. 2 . On the inverted “U” relationship between state repression and civil violence see Muller (1985) Muller and Seligson (1987) Muller and Weede (1990) Hegre et al. (2001). 3 . The data may be downloaded from: http://econ.worldbank.org/programs/conflict/datasets/data?id=13219 4 .The following cases were coded “1" on more war based on Gleditsch et al (2002) reporting the level of conflict reaching “war” in |
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