Author's Keywords: Pre-election polls; Registration based sampling; sampling methods; RBS; election forecasting	Convention Submission, Review, and Scheduling! All Academic Convention can help with all of your abstract management needs and many more. Contact us today for a quote! Submission - Custom fields, multiple submission types, tracks, audio visual, multiple upload formats, automatic conversion to pdf. Review - Peer Review, Bulk reviewer assignment, bulk emails, ranking, z-score statistics, and multiple worksheets! Reports - Many standard and custom reports generated while you wait. Print programs with participant indexes, event grids, and more! Scheduling - Flexible and convenient grid scheduling within rooms and buildings. Conflict checking and advanced filtering. Communication - Bulk email tools to help your administrators send reminders and responses. Use form letters, a message center, and much more! Management - Search tools, duplicate people management, editing tools, submission transfers, many tools to manage a variety of conference management headaches! Click here for more information.
Association: Name: American Political Science Association URL: http://www.apsanet.org
Citation: URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p63905_index.html Direct Link: HTML Code:

Mann, Christopher. "Improving Pre-election Forecasts From Registration Based Sampling: Using Voter Registration Data to Predict Partisan Vote Intention and to Allocate Undecided Voters" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia Marriott Hotel, Philadelphia, PA, Aug 27, 2003 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p63905_index.html>

Mann, C. , 2003-08-27 "Improving Pre-election Forecasts From Registration Based Sampling: Using Voter Registration Data to Predict Partisan Vote Intention and to Allocate Undecided Voters" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia Marriott Hotel, Philadelphia, PA Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p63905_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Review Method: Peer Reviewed Abstract: Green and Gerber (2003) have proposed a new sampling methodology for pre-election polling which utilizes the information available from electronic voter registration files to create a sample of registered likely voters. In comparisons in the 2002 General election the forecasts from this sampling methodology proved more accurate than traditional RDD polls. This paper documents the value of past voting history to predict turnout in 2002, then explores using party registration and past voting history to improve pre-election forecasts. I find that past primary voting history and party registration from the voter registration records are inconsistent as predictors of partisan vote intention in 2002. Further, I find that using this registration data does not significantly improve upon existing approaches to allocating undecided voters in order to get more accurate forecasts. Overall, RBS has many advantages over RDD but does not solve all of the difficulties with pre-election polling.

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