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Responding to Unipolarity: Power Balancing, Power Transitions, Security Dilemmas, and a Rising China

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Abstract:

I examine the extent to which three strands of realist thought illuminate the character of Sino-American relations in the contemporary unipolar order and the prospects for the future as China’s capabilities grow. In looking at the arguments about power transitions, power balancing, and the security dilemma, I suggest that all three help explain the Sino-American dynamic in the current unipolar era and the risks that may lie ahead. I first consider the meaning and usefulness of these three realist arguments for interpreting contemporary Sino-American relations. I then look more closely at what is generally regarded as the most plausible locus for serious conflict between China and the US—the Taiwan Straits. Each of the general arguments sheds some light on the way China’s rise, its interest in balancing against a dominant US, and the insecurity military preparations generate are shaping the management of the delicate Taiwan dispute. But to better illuminate the likelihood that tensions will result in actual conflict, that is to say whether the potential dangers will be realized, I suggest it is necessary to incorporate considerations that fall outside the purview of such broad-gauged theories. In particular, I demonstrate the way adding insights from strategic theory provides a more complete understanding of the prospects for conflict.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

china (207), us (113), power (108), taiwan (105), militari (103), american (96), would (77), intern (71), state (68), secur (60), theori (59), see (56), capabl (55), balanc (53), polit (49), forc (48), war (48), may (47), risk (46), rise (44), nuclear (42),

Author's Keywords:

Unipolarity, Power Transition, Balance of Power, Neorealism, Security Dilemma, China, Taiwan, Deterrence
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Name: American Political Science Association
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MLA Citation:

Goldstein, Avery. "Responding to Unipolarity: Power Balancing, Power Transitions, Security Dilemmas, and a Rising China" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia Marriott Hotel, Philadelphia, PA, Aug 27, 2003 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p64548_index.html>

APA Citation:

Goldstein, A. , 2003-08-27 "Responding to Unipolarity: Power Balancing, Power Transitions, Security Dilemmas, and a Rising China" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia Marriott Hotel, Philadelphia, PA Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p64548_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: I examine the extent to which three strands of realist thought illuminate the character of Sino-American relations in the contemporary unipolar order and the prospects for the future as China’s capabilities grow. In looking at the arguments about power transitions, power balancing, and the security dilemma, I suggest that all three help explain the Sino-American dynamic in the current unipolar era and the risks that may lie ahead. I first consider the meaning and usefulness of these three realist arguments for interpreting contemporary Sino-American relations. I then look more closely at what is generally regarded as the most plausible locus for serious conflict between China and the US—the Taiwan Straits. Each of the general arguments sheds some light on the way China’s rise, its interest in balancing against a dominant US, and the insecurity military preparations generate are shaping the management of the delicate Taiwan dispute. But to better illuminate the likelihood that tensions will result in actual conflict, that is to say whether the potential dangers will be realized, I suggest it is necessary to incorporate considerations that fall outside the purview of such broad-gauged theories. In particular, I demonstrate the way adding insights from strategic theory provides a more complete understanding of the prospects for conflict.

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Document Type: .PDF
Page count: 43
Word count: 14687
Text sample:
Responding to Unipolarity: Power Balancing Power Transitions Security Dilemmas and a Rising China Avery Goldstein Professor Political Science Department University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia PA 19104-6215 agoldstn@sas.upenn.edu Prepared for delivery at the 2003 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association August 28 - August 31 2003. Copyright by the American Political Science Association. (rough draft; please do not cite or circulate without author’s permission) While the usual academic and policy debates about the defining characteristics of the contemporary international
the system’s dominant state about the incentives for the weak to balance against the strong and for anarchy to generate bet-hedging behavior that can sustain military insecurity are helpful in identifying underlying causes and explaining broad patterns of international behavior. But introducing directly relevant military- strategic considerations contributes to a better understanding of the way these influences manifest themselves in specific cases-- such as the interaction between a rising China dissatisfied with Taiwan’s independence that it believes is sustained


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