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Association: Name: Southern Political Science Association URL: http://www.spsa.net
Citation: URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p68416_index.html Direct Link: HTML Code:

Rickershauser, Jill. "The Effects of Political Information on Expectations about Election Outcomes: Campaigns and Futures Markets" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, TBA, TBA, Jan 05, 2006 <Not Available>. 2009-05-25 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p68416_index.html>

Rickershauser, J. , 2006-01-05 "The Effects of Political Information on Expectations about Election Outcomes: Campaigns and Futures Markets" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, TBA, TBA Online <PDF>. 2009-05-25 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p68416_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Abstract: To judge which events during a campaign affect election outcomes, a continuous variable that reacts quickly to information is preferable to polls or panel studies. The pricing of futures contracts in prediction markets provide this kind of dependent variable. This paper looks at the volatility of the prices of futures in the 2004 presidential election markets as a measure of uncertainty about an event’s effects in addition to looking at the probability of a candidate winning as evidenced in the equilibrium futures price. Excluding election day, when early exit polls were used by traders, the events that caused the most volatility in prices in prediction markets in the 2004 presidential election campaign were the CBS story about Bush’s National Guard service and its retraction; Bush’s poor performance in the first debate; and the ‘tie’ in the third presidential debate.

The Effects of Political Knowledge on the Ability to Spot Manipulated Information in Print News Coverage of the 2004 Ukrainian Presidential Election

What Information Matters?: Political Prediction Markets & the 2004 Presidential Campaign

Volatility in Prediction Markets: A Measure of Information Flow in Political Campaigns