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The Interactive Effects of Domestic Politics and Public Opinion on Territorial Disputes: A Syria-Israel Pilot Study |
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Abstract:
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There is a growing body of evidence that domestic politics plays a crucial role in the escalation and de-escalation of territorial disputes. However, the roles of various domestic players (leaders, opposition parties, and public opinion) have rarely been analyzed systematically. In this paper, I propose a set hypotheses relating various domestic variables to the continuation and de-escalation of territorial disputes. I also lay out the path towards systematic testing of these arguments using measures of leadership and opposition positions, public opinion and external events. Using time series techniques, I assemble the necessary data for the Syria-Israeli rivalry from 1995 to 2002. I then test several hypotheses, including whether leaders lead or follow public opinion, and whether opposition party positions influence the leadership's policy towards the dispute. The results suggest that domestic and international political interactions over territory are inextricable linked, and have important repercussions for future theory building. |
Most Common Document Word Stems:
ralli (121), inform (108), polici (87), p (79), public (75), action (71), opposit (70), foreign (69), support (66), model (65), event (59), 0 (50), institut (47), cost (45), use (44), intern (42), post (42), patriot (41), 1 (39), theori (39), presidenti (38), |
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Association:
Name: International Studies Association
URL: http://www.isanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Colaresi, Michael. "The Interactive Effects of Domestic Politics and Public Opinion on Territorial Disputes: A Syria-Israel Pilot Study" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Hilton Hawaiian Village, Honolulu, Hawaii, Mar 05, 2005 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p72007_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Colaresi, M. P. , 2005-03-05 "The Interactive Effects of Domestic Politics and Public Opinion on Territorial Disputes: A Syria-Israel Pilot Study" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Hilton Hawaiian Village, Honolulu, Hawaii Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p72007_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: There is a growing body of evidence that domestic politics plays a crucial role in the escalation and de-escalation of territorial disputes. However, the roles of various domestic players (leaders, opposition parties, and public opinion) have rarely been analyzed systematically. In this paper, I propose a set hypotheses relating various domestic variables to the continuation and de-escalation of territorial disputes. I also lay out the path towards systematic testing of these arguments using measures of leadership and opposition positions, public opinion and external events. Using time series techniques, I assemble the necessary data for the Syria-Israeli rivalry from 1995 to 2002. I then test several hypotheses, including whether leaders lead or follow public opinion, and whether opposition party positions influence the leadership's policy towards the dispute. The results suggest that domestic and international political interactions over territory are inextricable linked, and have important repercussions for future theory building. |
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| Document Type: |
.pdf |
| Page count: |
35 |
| Word count: |
12924 |
| Text sample: |
| The Benefit of the Doubt: Testing an Informational Theory of the Rally-Effect Michael Colaresi Michigan State University colaresi@msu.edu February 25 2005 1 The two competing explanations for the spike in leadership approval after international crises and terrorist events involve the cessation of opposition criticism and the swelling of patriotism.1 However empirical research provides only modest support for either theory. To extend these preexisting frameworks I offer an informational theory of the rally effect. As has been pointed out in |
| Alert Verbal 10 12/21/2003 Chatter Alert Verbal 11 03/11/2004 Madrid bombing Verbal 12 03/26/2004 Ashcroft Warning Verbal 13 08/01/2004 Economic Icon Alert Verbal 34 Table 6: Forecast Error Comparisons for Post-9/11 Events Model RMSE MAD U Bivariate Info. 7.304 4.915 0.712 Dynamic Info. 7.760 5.617 0.757 Mean Patriot. 9.332 5.775 0.911 Opp. Criticism 9.907 6.081 0.962 Zero-order 10.247 6.077 1.000 Dynamic Z-order 10.992 6.692 1.073 35 |
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