Christopher Newman Midwest Political Science Association 2004
Elgin Community College Dark Tobacco Patch War—Revolution Analysis
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effects in the course of a revolt.
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Often triggered by seemingly minor causes,
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revolutions may be studied as an example chaotic or catastrophic change, behavior
characteristic of a phase transition in complexity theory.
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Goldstone attributes the
unpredictability of the course of revolutions to “path dependency” in which the course of
events of a revolution are affected (but not completely determined) by the actions of
individual agents.
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Goldstone distinguishes the “First Generation” of revolutionary theory—the
“Natural Histories” school of analysis—as being descriptive chronologies of events in a
revolution rather than having predictive value.
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He also differentiates the “Second
Generation” of “General Theories of Revolution” which did advance hypotheses as to
conditions ripe for revolution—the psychological discontent of relative deprivation (with
the Russian Revolution, but mature consideration would have to acknowledge that each
played its part.
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Anatomy of Rebellion 200.
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E.g. the American Civil War began with Confederate shelling of Fort Sumter in
response to an attempt by the Union to resupply the fort with foodstuffs. Samuel Eliot
Morison, The Oxford History of the American People. (New York: Oxford University
Press, 1965) [hereinafter “Morison”] 627-628. The American Revolution resulted from a
British attempt to seize munitions at Concord. Morison 214-215.
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Collapse of Chaos 211.
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“To explain why a revolution occurs at a particular time and why a revolution has
particular characteristics—certain participants, goals, and outcomes—we need to
examine the revolutionary process. Fourth-generation theories argue that we need to pay
close attention to what happens as revolutionary conflicts develop and unfold.
A focus on revolutionary processes helps us to understand what social scientists call
the “agency” and “path dependency” characteristics of revolutions. “Agency” implies
that not all aspects of a revolution are predetermined by macro-social, structural factors.
The decisions of key actors (or “agents”) make a difference in whether a revolution will
be successful and how it evolves. “Path dependency” implies that events and actions that
occur during the revolutionary process affect later outcomes. If actors had made different
decisions, or if a war or popular uprising had occurred at a different time or had not
occurred at all, the eventual outcome might have been very different.” Comparative and
Historical Study 12.
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Comparative and Historical Study 2-4.
Convention