Christopher Newman Midwest Political Science Association 2004
Elgin Community College Dark Tobacco Patch War—Revolution Analysis
15
of its conforming to the actual events in the Dark Patch War. Similarly, the degree and
timing of the Association’s acquisition of control of the mechanisms of force which were
actually brought to bear on the Dark Patch can provide support for Tilly’s hypothesis of
success predicated on control of available coercive resources. In assessing the validity of
either possible explanation through computer simulations, the "tape can be rewound"
numerous times
72
and the projections compared to the actual record to determine the
"goodness of fit" of the different proposed explanations.
73
In this case the price per pound of tobacco was taken as representative of the degree
of revolutionary impulse and the number of members of the association was the other
variable tested, as indicative of the scope of Relative Deprivation and the consequent
revolutionary impulse, following Gurr’s suggestion.
74
Shifts in the price of tobacco act as
a substitute for direct measurement of changes in the intensity of the RD felt by the
Association members (as all members received the same price, the average price would
reflect the average RD.) Similarly, the size of the membership of the Association can act
as an indicator of the scope of the RD in the Dark Patch.
75
72
Jeffrey S. Dean et al. "Understanding Anasazi Culture Change Through Agent-Based
Modeling". [hereinafter "Understanding Anasazi Culture Change"] ,179. In Dynamics in
Human and Primate Societies: Agent-Based Modeling Of Social and Spatial Processes.
Timothy A. Kohler and George G. Gumerman, eds. New York: Oxford University Press,
2000.
73
Understanding Anasazi Culture Change,180.
74
“ The intensity of RD [Relative Deprivation] is a psychocultural variable; the basic unit
of analysis is the individual, and the intensity of consequent anger in a collectivity is the
aggregate (or average) anger felt by its members. The scope of RD is a societal variable;
the unit of analysis is the collectivity and the operational question is the proportion of its
members who share specified levels of discontent, a question that can be answered either
by survey techniques or inferred from properties of the social system.”
Why Men Rebel
83.
75
Why Men Rebel 56.
Convention