Christopher Newman Midwest Political Science Association 2004
Elgin Community College Dark Tobacco Patch War—Revolution Analysis
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Tilly’s hypotheses about extent of mobilization in a revolutionary movement and
likelihood of success therein also can be assessed by applying the model. The degree of
mobilization of coercive forces can be indicated by the size of the membership of the
Association and, more particularly, the Night Riders, when compared to the overall
population of the Dark Patch. As the percentage of the population of armed Night Riders
grows, so does the degree of mobilization of the coercive forces.
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The effect of increased
Night Rider membership and activity is (at least in terms of outward behavior) an
increased commitment to the policies of the Association. Conversely, when Governor
Willson superseded local law enforcement by ordering in state militia units to provide
security for law and order
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and when the local judiciary was superseded by the federal
court
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, the Association monopoly of coercive force in the Dark Patch ended and the
impact of the Night Riders and the Association significantly lessened.
Spreading from those already possessed of it to those peculiarly susceptible to it,
the schema of revolutions can be treated as if it were a disease.
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If a revolution, like an
epidemic, is to be successful by spreading throughout a population and inciting violent
insurrection, the schema’s transmission must surpass a percolation threshold: more
people must acquire the idea of revolution successively over time than lose it (whether
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“ It follows more or less directly that the greater the coercive resources—including
private armies, weapons, and segments of the national armed forces—initially controlled
by the revolutionary coalition, the more likely the transfer of power…It also follows that
the presence of existing members of the polity in the revolutionary coalition will increase
the chances for some transfer of power (although it reduces the chance for a complete
wresting of power from the polity) both because of the additional resources it brings to
the coalition and because of the greater likelihood that the armed forces will defect,
waver, or remain neutral when confronted with established members of the polity.”From
Mobilization to Revolution 216.
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On Bended Knees 168. Tobacco Night Riders 163-64.
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Tobacco Night Riders 167.
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Nonlinear Dynamics 16-17.
Convention