Christopher Newman Midwest Political Science Association 2004
Elgin Community College Dark Tobacco Patch War—Revolution Analysis
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In this case the model “Rebel—1” was developed. A variation on the Virus Model,
Rebel—1 has several variable factors controlled by sliders, which can thus be altered to
observe the results. Such results can then be compared with the actual outcome to see if
the hypothetical conditions are valid descriptions of the mindsets of populations in the
past. Thus increasing susceptibility or resistance to rebelliousness, allowing bitterness to
fade with age, and other possibilities can be tested.
The Rebel—1 model was set with an infectious rate of 70% to reflect the fact that at
least 70% of the farmers in the Dark Patch signed pledges of their crop to the Association
(in some counties the percentage was as high as 80% to 95%, but the lower figure is
adopted as conservative) and thus would be susceptible to rebelliousness in the period of
conflict with the Tobacco Trust.
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The chance of becoming loyal or neutral after being a
rebel was set at 50%. A sample population of 300 individuals was created, with 3.3% set
as rebels at random to reflect the 5,000 farmers and their families attending the first
meeting of the Association called by Ewing at Guthrie in September, 1904
Each "TICK" represents a week in the time scale of this model, roughly two weeks in
real time.
The SETUP button resets the graphics and monitors and randomly distributes 298
green susceptible people and 2 red rebels (of randomly distributed ages). Independents,
grown opposed to the Night Riders or satisfied with the Trust prices, are shown in blue.
The GO button starts the simulation and the monitoring function.
The INFECTIOUSNESS slider determines how great the chance is that rebelliousness
transmission will occur when a rebel and neutral occupy the same patch. For instance,
when the slider is set to 50, the rebelliousness will spread and conversion from neutrality
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Tobacco Night Riders 88.
Convention