Christopher Newman Midwest Political Science Association 2004
Elgin Community College Dark Tobacco Patch War—Revolution Analysis
19
to rebel status will occur in roughly one of every two chance encounters. In this case
INFECTIOUSNESS is set at 70% to reflect the (minimum) 70% initial participation of
tobacco growers in Association pledges in order for a county to qualify as a county
member of the Association.
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TABLE ONE
YEAR
Price
(lb.) Chance-Recovery
Duration
%
Rebels %
Loyal
1904 4
cents
50%
26
weeks 66.4 29
1905 11
cents
50%
26
weeks 75.5 20.2
1906 11
cents
50%
26
weeks 55.8 36.5
1907
8.8
cents 50%
26
weeks 48.3 43.7
1908
8.5
cents 50%
26
weeks 58.4 37.8
1909 12
cents
50%
26
weeks 54.4 41.2
The CHANCE-RECOVERY slider controls the likelihood that rebelliousness in a
given individual will end in neutrality/loyalty. When this slider is set at zero, for
instance, the rebellion is always to the death. CHANCE-RECOVERY is initially set at
50% to reflect the balance between the farmers’ desire for independence in the conduct of
his own affairs on the one hand and the desire for a fair price for all.
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After every 26
clicks the CHANCE-RECOVERY slider is reset to reflect the new price of tobacco. In
this case, CHANCE-RECOVERY is increased 5% for every full 1 cent per pound
increase over the 6 cents per pound break even point and an additional 1% for each one-
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Tobacco Night Riders 88.
88
On Bended Knees 48-49.
Convention