Christopher Newman Midwest Political Science Association 2004
Elgin Community College Dark Tobacco Patch War—Revolution Analysis
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tenth cent received beyond that price. This alleviation of the economic Relative
Deprivation is a chance to test Gurr’s J-curve hypothesis.
TABLE TWO
YEAR Price (lb)
CHANCE-
RECOVERY Duration
%
Rebels %
Loyal
1904 4
cents
50%
XXXXXXX
3% 0%
1905 11
cents
75%
26
weeks 68.10%
27.20%
1906 11
cents
75%
26
weeks 67.10%
26.70%
1907
8.8
cents 68%
26
weeks
47.60%
48.70%
1908
8.5
cents 65%
26
weeks
42.00%
52.70%
1909 12
cents
80%
26
weeks 36.10%
59.30%
The DURATION slider determines the percent of the average life-span (which is
1500 weeks, or approximately 27 years, in this model) that a rebel goes through before
his participation in rebellion ends in either death, loyalty or neutrality. For the purposes
of the simulation (and based on an average male lifespan of roughly fifty years in 1900),
real-world time periods should be divided in half to reflect the limitations of the model.
Note that although zero is a slider possibility, it produces a rebellion of very short
duration—after the fashion of the uprisings after Dr. King was assassinated or Watts in
1965 (approximately 2 weeks) not a revolt with no duration at all. Initially, DURATION
is set at 26 weeks to reflect the experience of a one year reflected in the original
Association pledge to sell,
89
the financial commitment of Ewing’s original backers
90
, and
in the experience of the Bright Leaf Tobacco association some years later.
91
In both
TABLE ONE and TABLE TWO, DURATION remains constant at 26 weeks. Tilly’s
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Tobacco Night Riders 35.
90
Kentucky Tobacco War 169.
91
Blue-Grass Co-operation 462.
Convention