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“Everything They Ever Wanted”: ANetLogo Case Study of a Model of Rebellion in the Tobacco Dark Patch ofTennessee and Kentucky
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Christopher Newman Midwest Political Science Association 2004 Elgin Community College Dark Tobacco Patch War—Revolution Analysis
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Both Spreadsheet FCMs and NetLogo ABM are applications of the theory of
complex adaptive systems. By generating data in simulations, computer modeling
answers objections many have expressed to the theory—that it is “science without
facts.”
47
The new science of complex adaptive systems has been developed to explain
nonlinear phenomena, i.e. phenomena manifested by an entity that cannot be predicted by
summation of the properties and actions of the entity’s components.
48
A complex
adaptive system is defined
49
as “…an adaptive network exhibiting aggregate properties
that emerge from the local interaction among many agents mutually constituting their
own environment.”
50
Component agents’ individual adaptive actions may in turn change
the behavior of the entire system.
51
47
Ed Regis, The Info Mesa (New York, W. W. Norton & Company, 2003) 220-223.
48
John H. Holland, Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity (Redwood City,
CA.: Addison Wesley Publishing Company, 1995) [hereinafter “Hidden Order”] 15-16.
49
John Horgan, “From Complexity to Perplexity.” Scientific American. Vol. 276, No. 6,
June, 1995, 106. Horgan considers the many formulations of definitions of complex adaptive systems. Most of the definitions boil down to the characteristics included here.
50
Lars-Erik Cederman, Emergent Actors in World Politics. ( Princeton University Press:
Princeton, NJ,1997) 50. Russell Ruthen, “Adapting to Complexity” [hereinafter “Adapting to Complexity”]. Scientific American . Vol. 274, No. 1, January, 1993, 132. Amartya Sen emphasizes the futility of any attempt on the part of any individual agent that is part of a larger group—to use the current terminology, a higher order complex adaptive system (i.e. a CAS made up of other CAS’s)--to calculate choices rationally; because of the interdependence of all agents within a complex adaptive system, one agent cannot truly know what other agents will do. Amartya Sen, “Behavior and the Concept of Preference” in Choice, Welfare and Measurement. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1982, 72. Susanne Lohmann extends this to political action generally, providing an explanation of the process whereby the actions of an individual can trigger actions of others nearby, potentially resulting in what she calls a "cascade effect." “For a given frequency distribution of thresholds, one individual’s choice of an alternative has the potential to push another individual over her threshold; the second individual’s action in turn may induce other individuals to follow; and so on until the cascade comes to a stop…First the cascade is monotonic; that is, the number of individuals who choose one alternative increases until it stagnates at some point. Second, the actions of extremists characterized by low thresholds are crucial for the behavior of moderates with higher thresholds…" Susanne Lohmann, “The Dynamics of Informational Cascades: The Monday Demonstrations in Leipzig, East Germany, 1989-91.” World Politics. 47, No.1,
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Christopher Newman Midwest Political Science Association 2004
Elgin Community College Dark Tobacco Patch War—Revolution Analysis
9
Both Spreadsheet FCMs and NetLogo ABM are applications of the theory of
complex adaptive systems. By generating data in simulations, computer modeling
answers objections many have expressed to the theory—that it is “science without
facts.”
47
The new science of complex adaptive systems has been developed to explain
nonlinear phenomena, i.e. phenomena manifested by an entity that cannot be predicted by
summation of the properties and actions of the entity’s components.
48
A complex
adaptive system is defined
49
as “…an adaptive network exhibiting aggregate properties
that emerge from the local interaction among many agents mutually constituting their
own environment.”
50
Component agents’ individual adaptive actions may in turn change
the behavior of the entire system.
51
47
Ed Regis, The Info Mesa (New York, W. W. Norton & Company, 2003) 220-223.
48
John H. Holland, Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity (Redwood City,
CA.: Addison Wesley Publishing Company, 1995) [hereinafter “Hidden Order”] 15-16.
49
John Horgan, “From Complexity to Perplexity.” Scientific American. Vol. 276, No. 6,
June, 1995, 106. Horgan considers the many formulations of definitions of complex
adaptive systems. Most of the definitions boil down to the characteristics included here.
50
Lars-Erik Cederman, Emergent Actors in World Politics. ( Princeton University Press:
Princeton, NJ,1997) 50. Russell Ruthen, “Adapting to Complexity” [hereinafter
“Adapting to Complexity”]. Scientific American . Vol. 274, No. 1, January, 1993, 132.
Amartya Sen emphasizes the futility of any attempt on the part of any individual agent
that is part of a larger group—to use the current terminology, a higher order complex
adaptive system (i.e. a CAS made up of other CAS’s)--to calculate choices rationally;
because of the interdependence of all agents within a complex adaptive system, one agent
cannot truly know what other agents will do. Amartya Sen, “Behavior and the Concept
of Preference” in Choice, Welfare and Measurement. Cambridge, MA: Harvard
University Press, 1982, 72. Susanne Lohmann extends this to political action generally,
providing an explanation of the process whereby the actions of an individual can trigger
actions of others nearby, potentially resulting in what she calls a "cascade effect." “For a
given frequency distribution of thresholds, one individual’s choice of an alternative has
the potential to push another individual over her threshold; the second individual’s action
in turn may induce other individuals to follow; and so on until the cascade comes to a
stop…First the cascade is monotonic; that is, the number of individuals who choose one
alternative increases until it stagnates at some point. Second, the actions of extremists
characterized by low thresholds are crucial for the behavior of moderates with higher
thresholds…" Susanne Lohmann, “The Dynamics of Informational Cascades: The
Monday Demonstrations in Leipzig, East Germany, 1989-91.” World Politics. 47, No.1,
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